xwOBA
.319#14
wOBA
.315#18
xERA
3.71#3
ERA
3.57#7
K%
23.2#23
BB%
9.3#9
What they're good at
- ✅ #3 in underlying run prevention (xERA)
- ✅ #7 in actual run prevention (ERA)
- ✅ #9 in drawing walks (BB%)
Where they're struggling
- ❌ #23 in avoiding strikeouts (K%)
Rising under the surface
The model's buys on this roster
Overperforming
Results ahead of process — regression risk
Changed mechanically
Measured swing/delivery changes vs last season
