Javier Báez

Detroit Tigers · AL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 82 PA

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 251 of 527 hitters by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−8.3 last 7 days

HOLDLong LeverageProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age) (27% confidence).

RBI

AVG

.256

OBP

.280

SLG

.397

OPS

.677

DefenseArm 92.7 mph70pSprint 27.2 ft/s45p

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xBA.272

xSLG.361

xwOBA.294

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

BA.256

SLG.397

wOBA.293

BABIP.295

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

AVG vs xBA−.01671

SLG vs xSLG+.03625

wOBA vs xwOBA−.00151

BABIP vs xBABIP+.01442

Swing DNA & matchups

2026 bat tracking with league percentiles · matchups vs every pitch type, minimum 10 PA

Long Leverage

Long, fast swing — big damage on contact with real whiff exposure deep in counts.

The swing

Bat Speed72.5 mph61 pctl

Swing Length8.5 ft100 pctl

Fast-Swing Rate22.7%55 pctl

Squared-Up Rate20.7%28 pctl

Percentiles vs all tracked hitters. Attack angle/direction and tilt are swing-weighted averages across batting sides. Swing type from editable rules — first match wins.

vs pitch types

Pitch	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	lg xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	RV/100
4-Seam Fastball	13	.619	.575	.327	17.6lg 22.0	7.7	3.2
Sweeper	17	.276	.217	.263	35.3lg 31.0	29.4	-1.1
Sinker	11	.359	.329	.351	19.0lg 13.7	18.2	-0.7
Slider	12	.082	.184	.288	34.6lg 33.5	33.3	-6.1
Changeup	10	.000	.143	.278	35.3lg 31.5	20.0	-8.5

xwOBA green/red when 20+ points above/below league vs that pitch. RV/100 = run value per 100 pitches seen (positive favors the hitter). Source: Savant pitch arsenal stats.

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Swing Length Swing length vs baseline	Swing	8.5	8.3	+0.2	7	85
Bat Speed Bat speed vs baseline	Swing	72.5	73.5	−1.0	9	81
K% K% vs baseline	Discipline	19.5	24.9	−5.4	86	73
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% vs league	Quality of Contact	28.6	37.6	−9.0	15	71
Barrel% Barrel% vs league	Quality of Contact	3.2	7.6	−4.4	16	68
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	27.5	30.7	−3.2	82	63
xSLG SLG vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.397	.361	+.036	25	51
Chase% Chase% vs baseline	Discipline	50.9	46.1	+4.8	25	51
xBA AVG vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.256	.272	−.016	71	41
xBABIP BABIP vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.295	.281	+.014	42	17
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	2.4	2.3	+0.1	55	10
xwOBA wOBA vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.293	.294	−.001	51	3
EV Trend Recent EV vs season EV	Quality of Contact	84.7	84.7	±0.0	50	0
LA Trend Launch angle vs optimal	Quality of Contact	10.2	10.2	±0.0	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs NYY	L 0-3	2-4, 2 RBI, BB	Max EV 92.0 mph
Jul 19	vs TB	L 5-7	1-4	Max EV 94.4 mph
Jul 17	@ SD	W 7-2	1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, BB	Max EV 95.2 mph
Jul 15	@ CWS	L 3-9	1-3	Max EV 91.8 mph
Jul 13	@ NYY	L 1-9	0-4	Max EV 95.3 mph
Jul 11	vs SEA	L 1-4	1-5	Max EV 90.5 mph
Jul 10	vs SD	L 4-6	1-4	Max EV 92.0 mph
Jul 8	vs BAL	W 4-0	0-5	Max EV 89.6 mph
Jul 6	@ MIA	W 6-3	2-5	Max EV 88.6 mph
Jul 5	vs CHC	L 4-5	2-4, 2 RBI	Max EV 88.1 mph

Percentile rankings

xwOBA

Hard-Hit%

Barrel%

Avg Exit Velo

Bat Speed

BB%

Chase%

30-day rolling trends

Rolling wOBA vs xwOBA

wOBAxwOBA

Rolling Hard-Hit%

Rolling Barrel%

Rolling Exit Velocity

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

wOBA

xwOBA

lg xwOBA

Whiff%

RV/100

4-Seam Fastball

.619

.575

.327

17.6lg 22.0

7.7

3.2

Sweeper

.276

.217

.263

35.3lg 31.0

29.4

-1.1

Sinker

.359

.329

.351

19.0lg 13.7

18.2

-0.7

Slider

.082

.184

.288

34.6lg 33.5

33.3

-6.1

Changeup

.000

.143

.278

35.3lg 31.5

20.0

-8.5

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Swing Length

Swing length vs baseline

Swing

8.5

8.3

+0.2

Bat Speed

Bat speed vs baseline

Swing

72.5

73.5

−1.0

K% vs baseline

Discipline

19.5

24.9

−5.4

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% vs league

Quality of Contact

28.6

37.6

−9.0

Barrel%

Barrel% vs league

Quality of Contact

3.2

7.6

−4.4

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

27.5

30.7

−3.2

xSLG

SLG vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.397

.361

+.036

Chase%

Chase% vs baseline

Discipline

50.9

46.1

+4.8

xBA

AVG vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.256

.272

−.016

xBABIP

BABIP vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.295

.281

+.014

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

2.4

2.3

+0.1

xwOBA

wOBA vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.293

.294

−.001

EV Trend

Recent EV vs season EV

Quality of Contact

84.7

±0.0

LA Trend

Launch angle vs optimal

Quality of Contact

10.2

±0.0

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs NYY

L 0-3

2-4, 2 RBI, BB

Jul 19

vs TB

L 5-7

1-4

Jul 17

@ SD

W 7-2

1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, BB

Jul 15

@ CWS

L 3-9

1-3

Jul 13

@ NYY

L 1-9

0-4

Jul 11

vs SEA

L 1-4

1-5

Jul 10

vs SD

L 4-6

1-4

Jul 8

vs BAL

W 4-0

0-5

Jul 6

@ MIA

W 6-3

2-5

Jul 5

vs CHC

L 4-5

2-4, 2 RBI