Framber Valdez

SPQualified

Detroit Tigers · AL · Age 32 · Bats R / Throws L · 107.7 IP · 469 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 85 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−0.8 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

5-6

107.7

ERA

4.10

WHIP

1.32

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.22

xwOBA.317

xBA.249

xSLG.394

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA4.10

wOBA.312

BA.252

SLG.376

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.1248

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00543

BA against vs xBA+.00354

SLG against vs xSLG−.01834

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	45.9%(+0.2)	93.9lg 94.0	−0.3	4673	2171	5.7"lg 8.4	15.1"lg 15.0
Curveball	27.8%(−5.3)	78.6lg 80.3	−0.8	2864	2870	-14.5"lg -10.3	13.1"lg 8.8
Changeup	19.6%(+1.7)	89.1lg 86.6	−0.7	7866	1648	2.1"lg 4.1	13.9"lg 14.0
Slider	4.6%(+1.5)	86.0lg 86.2	+1.6	4133	2429	—lg 1.5	—lg 4.1
4-Seam Fastball	2.1%(+1.9)	95.0lg 94.5	−0.5	5796	2196	—lg 15.4	—lg 7.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

64 pctl · +0.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	21.1	26.6	−5.5	7	85
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	18.6	23.3	−4.7	16	67
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	7.7	8.5	−0.8	77	54
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	95.0	95.5	−0.5	24	53
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2196	2230	−34	26	49
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	41.4	38.8	+2.6	31	38
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.5	7.8	−1.3	69	37
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.376	.394	−.018	34	32
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.312	.317	−.005	43	15
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	5.3	5.3	±0.0	55	10
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.252	.249	+.003	54	9
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	4.10	4.22	−0.12	48	3
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.7	9.7	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs TEX	L 0-8	6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 14	@ KC	W 4-3	5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jul 8	@ ATL	W 4-0	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.3 mph
Jul 3	vs KC	L 1-6	6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.4 mph
Jun 27	vs CLE	L 3-5	5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.5 mph
Jun 21	vs CIN	L 5-9	5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.1 mph
Jun 17	@ HOU	L 2-7	4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.8 mph
Jun 11	vs LAD	W 3-1	5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.5 mph
Jun 7	@ PIT	L 5-10	4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 95.0 mph
Jun 2	@ BAL	W 5-0	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 94.4 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

45.9%(+0.2)

93.9lg 94.0

−0.3

4673

2171

5.7"lg 8.4

15.1"lg 15.0

Curveball

27.8%(−5.3)

78.6lg 80.3

−0.8

2864

2870

-14.5"lg -10.3

13.1"lg 8.8

Changeup

19.6%(+1.7)

89.1lg 86.6

−0.7

7866

1648

2.1"lg 4.1

13.9"lg 14.0

Slider

4.6%(+1.5)

86.0lg 86.2

+1.6

4133

2429

—lg 1.5

—lg 4.1

4-Seam Fastball

2.1%(+1.9)

95.0lg 94.5

−0.5

5796

2196

—lg 15.4

—lg 7.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

21.1

26.6

−5.5

K% vs baseline

Contact

18.6

23.3

−4.7

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

7.7

8.5

−0.8

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

95.0

95.5

−0.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2196

2230

−34

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

41.4

38.8

+2.6

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.5

7.8

−1.3

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.376

.394

−.018

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.312

.317

−.005

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

5.3

±0.0

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.252

.249

+.003

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

4.10

4.22

−0.12

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.7

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs TEX

L 0-8

6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jul 14

@ KC

W 4-3

5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jul 8

@ ATL

W 4-0

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 3

vs KC

L 1-6

6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 27

vs CLE

L 3-5

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 21

vs CIN

L 5-9

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 17

@ HOU

L 2-7

4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jun 11

vs LAD

W 3-1

5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jun 7

@ PIT

L 5-10

4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jun 2

@ BAL

W 5-0

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 3 BB