Tyler Black
28 PA · sample confidence ×0.26 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
xwOBA−.240
Sweet-spot rate−17.9%
xBA−.085
xSLG−.131
Chase rate+10.6%
wOBA−.067
In his favor / neutral
Walk rate−34.9%
Pull rate−27.1%
Opposite-field rate+25.0%
Strikeout rate+17.3%
Fly-ball rate+20.7%
Zone contact+16.6%
Swing rate+14.7%
AVG+.083
Whiff rate−10.2%
SLG+.106
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
16%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +10.6% vs last season
- • Walk rate −34.9% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +17.3% vs last season
- • Zone contact +16.6% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 84% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.
- • No bat-tracking rows this season (public minimum: 50 competitive swings).