Phil Maton
28 IP · sample confidence ×0.48 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. Fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health)
23%Causal path: Health / fatigue → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Whiff rate −10.5% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate −9.7% vs last season
- • Hard-hit against +12.2% vs last season
Against / absent: Fastball velocity +0.6 mph vs last season
Velocity loss has medical causes public data cannot see. Treat as a flag for staff, never a diagnosis.
2. Command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff
22%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing decisions → Actual outcomes
- • Walk rate +2.2% vs last season
- • Fastball velocity +0.6 mph vs last season(stuff intact isolates command)
Against / absent: First-pitch strike +9.6% vs last season · Chase rate −1.4% vs last season
3. Fastball shape degraded — flatter, more hittable
20%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Hard-hit against +12.2% vs last season
- • Barrel against +8.3% vs last season
- • Whiff rate −10.5% vs last season
Against / absent: Fastball IVB +0.5" vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 35% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.