Phil Maton

RPQualified

Chicago Cubs · NL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 27.7 IP · 136 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 184 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−2.1 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (23% confidence).

W-L

0-1

27.7

ERA

6.18

WHIP

1.81

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA6.79

xwOBA.389

xBA.294

xSLG.487

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA6.18

wOBA.398

BA.306

SLG.514

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.6131

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00962

BA against vs xBA+.01266

SLG against vs xSLG+.02766

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Cutter	36.8%(+0.8)	89.5lg 89.5	−1.1	4585	2561	9.7"lg 7.9	2.6"lg 2.4
Curveball	28.9%(−9.3)	75.6lg 80.3	−0.3	949	3117	-9.3"lg -10.3	18.6"lg 8.8
Sinker	19.0%(+6.9)	90.2lg 94.0	+0.6	622	2303	6.4"lg 8.4	13.1"lg 15.0
Sweeper	15.2%(+1.5)	83.2lg 82.5	−0.4	6052	2736	4.5"lg 0.9	12.9"lg 13.7

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

15 pctl · −1.1° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	25.7	36.2	−10.5	1	98
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	22.8	32.5	−9.7	3	94
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	13.1	14.9	−1.8	5	90
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	11.9	7.8	+4.1	10	81
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	6.4	5.9	+0.5	87	74
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	90.2	89.6	+0.6	87	73
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	11.8	9.6	+2.2	19	63
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	42.9	38.8	+4.1	24	52
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2303	2334	−31	27	46
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	6.18	6.79	−0.61	31	38
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.306	.294	+.012	66	32
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.514	.487	+.027	66	32
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.398	.389	+.009	62	24
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs BAL	L 5-6	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.4 mph
Jul 17	@ TEX	W 3-0	2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.8 mph
Jul 15	@ KC	W 6-0	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.9 mph
Jul 14	@ BAL	L 5-8	1.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.3 mph
Jul 11	vs CIN	L 0-4	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.9 mph
Jul 10	@ TEX	L 1-3	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.1 mph
Jul 9	@ NYY	W 3-1	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.0 mph
Jul 7	@ NYY	W 5-4	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.2 mph
Jul 5	vs MIA	W 4-2	1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.2 mph
Jul 3	@ KC	L 4-6	2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 89.8 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Cutter

36.8%(+0.8)

89.5lg 89.5

−1.1

4585

2561

9.7"lg 7.9

2.6"lg 2.4

Curveball

28.9%(−9.3)

75.6lg 80.3

−0.3

949

3117

-9.3"lg -10.3

18.6"lg 8.8

Sinker

19.0%(+6.9)

90.2lg 94.0

+0.6

622

2303

6.4"lg 8.4

13.1"lg 15.0

Sweeper

15.2%(+1.5)

83.2lg 82.5

−0.4

6052

2736

4.5"lg 0.9

12.9"lg 13.7

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

25.7

36.2

−10.5

K% vs baseline

Contact

22.8

32.5

−9.7

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

13.1

14.9

−1.8

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

11.9

7.8

+4.1

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

6.4

5.9

+0.5

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

90.2

89.6

+0.6

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

11.8

9.6

+2.2

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

42.9

38.8

+4.1

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2303

2334

−31

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

6.18

6.79

−0.61

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.306

.294

+.012

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.514

.487

+.027

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.398

.389

+.009

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs BAL

L 5-6

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

@ TEX

W 3-0

2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

@ KC

W 6-0

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 14

@ BAL

L 5-8

1.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 11

vs CIN

L 0-4

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 10

@ TEX

L 1-3

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 9

@ NYY

W 3-1

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

@ NYY

W 5-4

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 5

vs MIA

W 4-2

1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 3

@ KC

L 4-6

2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 2 BB