Luis Morales
9 IP · sample confidence ×0.28 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
ERA+11.320
xERA+6.870
wOBA against+.268
xwOBA against+.147
Barrel against+3.4%
Hard-hit against+4.1%
Fastball velocity−0.9 mph
In his favor / neutral
Fastball spin−149 rpm
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health)
13%Causal path: Health / fatigue → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Fastball velocity −0.9 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit against +4.1% vs last season
Against / absent: d_whiff_pct (no data) · d_k_pct (no data)
Velocity loss has medical causes public data cannot see. Treat as a flag for staff, never a diagnosis.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 87% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Review recent workload and rest patterns with staff
First, cheapest explanation for in-season velocity loss; rules out before mechanical work.
Per-outing velocity tracking against this baseline
Distinguishes a dead-arm phase from a persistent decline.
Video review, current vs last season, synced at contact
Compare side views at contact point. Public data flags the fingerprint; video confirms or rejects the mechanical story before anything is changed.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.