Justin Lawrence
34 IP · sample confidence ×0.53 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. ERA overstates the problem — results behind the process
26%Causal path: Expected outcomes → Actual outcomes
- • ERA +.930 vs xERA(ERA at least half a run above xERA)
- • Fastball velocity +0.7 mph vs last season
Against / absent: Whiff rate −3.2% vs last season · Hard-hit against +18.0% vs last season
2. Command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff
23%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing decisions → Actual outcomes
- • Walk rate +4.2% vs last season
- • Fastball velocity +0.7 mph vs last season(stuff intact isolates command)
- • Chase rate −4.6% vs last season
Against / absent: First-pitch strike +4.3% vs last season
3. Fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health)
21%Causal path: Health / fatigue → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Whiff rate −3.2% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate −9.0% vs last season
- • Hard-hit against +18.0% vs last season
Against / absent: Fastball velocity +0.7 mph vs last season
Velocity loss has medical causes public data cannot see. Treat as a flag for staff, never a diagnosis.
4. Arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics
20%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Expected outcomes
- • Arm angle +3.4° vs last season
Against / absent: d_ivb_fb (no data)
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 10% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.