Justin Lawrence

RPQualified

Washington Nationals · NL · Age 31 · Bats R / Throws R · 34.3 IP · 177 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 215 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−6.7 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: era overstates the problem â€” results behind the process (26% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.4°.

W-L

0-3

34.3

ERA

7.34

WHIP

1.95

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA6.41

xwOBA.380

xBA.267

xSLG.455

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA7.34

wOBA.413

BA.275

SLG.549

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.9378

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03383

BA against vs xBA+.00861

SLG against vs xSLG+.09490

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sweeper	43.7%(−6.3)	82.1lg 82.5	−0.9	4293	2982	2.0"lg 0.9	17.2"lg 13.7
Sinker	42.7%(+2.0)	95.5lg 94.0	+0.5	7384	2421	1.4"lg 8.4	16.6"lg 15.0
4-Seam Fastball	13.6%(+4.3)	95.6lg 94.5	+0.7	6903	2502	11.5"lg 15.4	12.0"lg 7.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +3.4°

Arm slot

1 pctl · +3.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	24.3	33.3	−9.0	4	91
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	15.8	11.6	+4.2	9	82
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.549	.455	+.094	90	80
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	95.6	94.9	+0.7	87	74
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.413	.380	+.033	83	66
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2502	2478	+24	82	64
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	10.0	7.8	+2.2	19	62
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	26.3	29.5	−3.2	19	62
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	7.34	6.41	+0.93	78	56
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	43.0	38.8	+4.2	23	54
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.275	.267	+.008	61	21
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	11.5	11.5	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	12.0	12.0	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ OAK	L 5-10	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.5 mph
Jul 19	@ SF	W 3-2	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.3 mph
Jul 16	@ SD	W 6-1	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.0 mph
Jul 15	@ CLE	L 0-6	1.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 12	@ CWS	W 5-1	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.7 mph
Jul 9	@ ATL	W 9-5	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph
Jul 7	vs AZ	W 5-3	2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.7 mph
Jul 4	vs CLE	W 3-0	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.5 mph
Jul 3	vs HOU	W 4-3	1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.8 mph
Jul 2	@ SEA	W 3-2	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sweeper

43.7%(−6.3)

82.1lg 82.5

−0.9

4293

2982

2.0"lg 0.9

17.2"lg 13.7

Sinker

42.7%(+2.0)

95.5lg 94.0

+0.5

7384

2421

1.4"lg 8.4

16.6"lg 15.0

4-Seam Fastball

13.6%(+4.3)

95.6lg 94.5

+0.7

6903

2502

11.5"lg 15.4

12.0"lg 7.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

K% vs baseline

Contact

24.3

33.3

−9.0

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

15.8

11.6

+4.2

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.549

.455

+.094

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

95.6

94.9

+0.7

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.413

.380

+.033

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2502

2478

+24

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

10.0

7.8

+2.2

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

26.3

29.5

−3.2

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

7.34

6.41

+0.93

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

43.0

38.8

+4.2

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.275

.267

+.008

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

11.5

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

12.0

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ OAK

L 5-10

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 19

@ SF

W 3-2

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

Jul 16

@ SD

W 6-1

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

@ CLE

L 0-6

1.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 12

@ CWS

W 5-1

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 9

@ ATL

W 9-5

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs AZ

W 5-3

2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 4

vs CLE

W 3-0

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 3

vs HOU

W 4-3

1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 2

@ SEA

W 3-2

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB