Jorge Polanco
87 PA · sample confidence ×0.47 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
SLG−.236
xSLG−.168
wOBA−.129
xwOBA−.092
Hard-hit rate−18.1%
Avg exit velocity−6.0 mph
AVG−.092
xBA−.054
Barrel rate−7.2%
Max exit velocity−3.2 mph
Fast-swing rate−9.9%
Chase rate+4.9%
Bat speed−1.5 mph
In his favor / neutral
Fly-ball rate−7.2%
Avg launch angle−4.5°
Opposite-field rate+5.8%
Pull rate−5.3%
Zone contact+4.3%
Whiff rate−3.6%
Strikeout rate+2.8%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
28%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Bat speed −1.5 mph vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −6.0 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −3.2 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −18.1% vs last season
- • Fast-swing rate −9.9% vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
2. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
24%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +4.9% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +2.8% vs last season
- • Zone contact +4.3% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Walk rate −1.1% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 48% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Flag to strength and training staff for workload/strength review
Public data cannot separate strength loss, fatigue, or sub-clinical injury — that determination belongs to staff with medical context.
Track bat speed weekly against this baseline
Establishes whether the decline is a trend or a blip before intervening.
Video review, current vs last season, synced at contact
Compare side views at contact point. Public data flags the fingerprint; video confirms or rejects the mechanical story before anything is changed.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.