Chris Martin
14 IP · sample confidence ×0.34 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. ERA overstates the problem — results behind the process
20%Causal path: Expected outcomes → Actual outcomes
- • ERA +1.360 vs xERA(ERA at least half a run above xERA)
- • Fastball velocity −0.2 mph vs last season
Against / absent: Whiff rate −5.9% vs last season · Hard-hit against +3.4% vs last season
2. Fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health)
16%Causal path: Health / fatigue → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Whiff rate −5.9% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate −11.3% vs last season
- • Hard-hit against +3.4% vs last season
Against / absent: Fastball velocity −0.2 mph vs last season
Velocity loss has medical causes public data cannot see. Treat as a flag for staff, never a diagnosis.
3. Command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff
16%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing decisions → Actual outcomes
- • First-pitch strike −5.0% vs last season
- • Fastball velocity −0.2 mph vs last season(stuff intact isolates command)
- • Chase rate −3.4% vs last season
Against / absent: Walk rate −1.0% vs last season
4. Fastball shape degraded — flatter, more hittable
14%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Hard-hit against +3.4% vs last season
- • Barrel against +2.1% vs last season
- • Whiff rate −5.9% vs last season
Against / absent: d_ivb_fb (no data)
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 34% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.