Zack Littell

SPQualified

Washington Nationals · NL · Age 30 · Bats R / Throws R · 96.0 IP · 414 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 9 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+0.9 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — barrel% against vs league: 11.3 actual vs 7.8 deserved.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (43% confidence).

W-L

7-7

96.0

ERA

5.34

WHIP

1.35

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA6.49

xwOBA.382

xBA.292

xSLG.535

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA5.34

wOBA.354

BA.267

SLG.507

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.1518

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.02816

BA against vs xBA−.02520

SLG against vs xSLG−.02825

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Slider	29.3%(+1.8)	88.1lg 86.2	+0.8	7743	2123	10.3"lg 1.5	1.7"lg 4.1
4-Seam Fastball	27.4%(+3.5)	91.7lg 94.5	−0.4	978	2022	16.4"lg 15.4	6.5"lg 7.8
Splitter	19.6%(−7.7)	83.9lg 86.7	+0.5	1743	1095	0.6"lg 3.1	10.7"lg 11.1
Sinker	14.8%(−1.0)	91.3lg 94.0	−0.2	1276	1960	11.4"lg 8.4	14.4"lg 15.0
Sweeper	8.8%(+3.4)	79.3lg 82.5	−0.2	1259	2174	-4.5"lg 0.9	12.3"lg 13.7

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

55 pctl · +0.2° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	11.3	7.8	+3.5	12	75
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	45.3	38.8	+6.5	13	75
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	7.2	4.2	+3.0	14	73
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.354	.382	−.028	16	67
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	17.0	20.4	−3.4	18	65
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	6.5	7.3	−0.8	18	64
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	5.34	6.49	−1.15	18	64
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.4	16.1	+0.3	81	62
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.267	.292	−.025	20	61
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2022	2011	+11	76	51
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.507	.535	−.028	25	49
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	91.7	92.1	−0.4	28	43
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	14.7	17.1	−2.4	29	43
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ LAA	W 4-0	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jul 16	@ SEA	L 4-7	4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.4 mph
Jul 11	@ CIN	W 7-6	4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 92.9 mph
Jul 5	vs SEA	W 7-0	7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.2 mph
Jun 30	@ KC	W 3-1	6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 92.0 mph
Jun 25	vs CHC	L 4-9	6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 92.2 mph
Jun 19	vs COL	W 6-4	6.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 92.5 mph
Jun 13	vs TOR	L 1-4	5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.3 mph
Jun 7	vs CWS	L 1-7	5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.1 mph
Jun 1	vs CWS	W 6-0	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Slider

29.3%(+1.8)

88.1lg 86.2

+0.8

7743

2123

10.3"lg 1.5

1.7"lg 4.1

4-Seam Fastball

27.4%(+3.5)

91.7lg 94.5

−0.4

978

2022

16.4"lg 15.4

6.5"lg 7.8

Splitter

19.6%(−7.7)

83.9lg 86.7

+0.5

1743

1095

0.6"lg 3.1

10.7"lg 11.1

Sinker

14.8%(−1.0)

91.3lg 94.0

−0.2

1276

1960

11.4"lg 8.4

14.4"lg 15.0

Sweeper

8.8%(+3.4)

79.3lg 82.5

−0.2

1259

2174

-4.5"lg 0.9

12.3"lg 13.7

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

11.3

7.8

+3.5

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

45.3

38.8

+6.5

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

7.2

4.2

+3.0

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.354

.382

−.028

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

17.0

20.4

−3.4

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

6.5

7.3

−0.8

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

5.34

6.49

−1.15

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.4

16.1

+0.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.267

.292

−.025

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2022

2011

+11

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.507

.535

−.028

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

91.7

92.1

−0.4

K% vs baseline

Contact

14.7

17.1

−2.4

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ LAA

W 4-0

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 16

@ SEA

L 4-7

4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 11

@ CIN

W 7-6

4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB

Jul 5

vs SEA

W 7-0

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jun 30

@ KC

W 3-1

6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 25

vs CHC

L 4-9

6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB

Jun 19

vs COL

W 6-4

6.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jun 13

vs TOR

L 1-4

5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 7

vs CWS

L 1-7

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jun 1

vs CWS

W 6-0

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB