Walker Buehler
SPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 31 · Bats R / Throws R · 89.0 IP · 388 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 420 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
6
+3.0 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (38% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.0°.
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.52
xwOBA.327
xBA.258
xSLG.414
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.36
wOBA.336
BA.266
SLG.427
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.8476
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 23.8%(+6.9) | 90.2lg 89.5 | −0.4 | 5704 | 2370 | 9.5"lg 7.9 | 5.1"lg 2.4 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 20.9%(−4.4) | 94.0lg 94.5 | ±0.0 | 3867 | 2164 | 16.0"lg 15.4 | 4.9"lg 7.8 |
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.0°
Arm slot
78 pctl · +3.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index