Tommy Nance
RPQualifiedMinnesota Twins · AL · Age 35 · Bats R / Throws R · 36.3 IP · 157 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 573 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
1
+1.1 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (26% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.5°.
W-L
2-2
SV
0
IP
36.3
K
39
BB
16
ERA
3.96
WHIP
1.38
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.37
xwOBA.322
xBA.254
xSLG.409
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.96
wOBA.304
BA.245
SLG.367
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.4137
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01826
BA against vs xBA−.00937
SLG against vs xSLG−.04219
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.7%(−4.3) | 88.6lg 86.2 | ±0.0 | 8278 | 2652 | 0.4"lg 1.5 | 0.5"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 32.9%(+3.6) | 84.6lg 80.3 | −0.4 | 8956 | 2842 | -14.7"lg -10.3 | 11.6"lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 27.9%(+0.1) | 94.6lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 5749 | 2271 | 9.8"lg 8.4 | 15.1"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.5°
Arm slot
79 pctl · +3.5° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
46
xwOBA Against
46
K%
73
BB%
30
Whiff%
61
FB Velocity
54
Hard-Hit% Against
73
Spin Rate
1
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%