Shota Imanaga
SPQualifiedChicago Cubs · NL · Age 32 · Bats L / Throws L · 115.0 IP · 464 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 48 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
29
−2.2 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — whiff% vs baseline: 29.3 actual vs 24.6 deserved.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (45% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.3°.
W-L
6-8
SV
0
IP
115.0
K
109
BB
28
ERA
3.91
WHIP
1.11
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.75
xwOBA.300
xBA.233
xSLG.404
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.91
wOBA.309
BA.232
SLG.432
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.1657
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00962
BA against vs xBA−.00147
SLG against vs xSLG+.02867
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 40.5%(−8.2) | 91.8lg 94.5 | +1.0 | 1081 | 2500 | 17.8"lg 15.4 | 11.0"lg 7.8 |
| Splitter | 33.6%(+2.2) | 83.1lg 86.7 | +0.1 | 1330 | 1128 | 6.1"lg 3.1 | 11.5"lg 11.1 |
| Sweeper | 14.4%(−2.1) | 81.3lg 82.5 | +1.0 | 3069 | 2528 | -0.5"lg 0.9 | 13.7"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 6.7%(+5.5) | 90.2lg 94.0 | +2.0 | 622 | 2456 | 9.8"lg 8.4 | 16.4"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 3.1%(+1.5) | 74.4lg 80.3 | +2.8 | 506 | 2516 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 1.7%(+1.1) | 86.6lg 86.2 | +4.9 | 5261 | 2488 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.3°
Arm slot
53 pctl · +3.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
67
xwOBA Against
67
K%
64
BB%
89
Whiff%
82
FB Velocity
14
Hard-Hit% Against
66
Spin Rate
92
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%