Shohei Ohtani
SPQualifiedLos Angeles Dodgers · NL · Age 32 · Bats L / Throws R · 85.7 IP · 340 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 160 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
17
−3.5 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (47% confidence).
W-L
8-2
SV
0
IP
85.7
K
95
BB
26
ERA
1.79
WHIP
0.95
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.72
xwOBA.257
xBA.201
xSLG.288
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA1.79
wOBA.238
BA.180
SLG.262
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.9323
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01925
BA against vs xBA−.02123
SLG against vs xSLG−.02627
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 45.2%(+6.4) | 98.1lg 94.5 | −0.3 | 9464 | 2486 | 14.0"lg 15.4 | 5.0"lg 7.8 |
| Sweeper | 29.4%(+6.6) | 85.0lg 82.5 | ±0.0 | 8190 | 2726 | 3.4"lg 0.9 | 15.0"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 10.0%(+1.2) | 75.2lg 80.3 | −3.4 | 839 | 2651 | -14.8"lg -10.3 | 13.4"lg 8.8 |
| Splitter | 8.5%(+3.9) | 89.0lg 86.7 | −1.3 | 7661 | 1564 | 2.0"lg 3.1 | 12.7"lg 11.1 |
| Sinker | 5.1%(−1.9) | 96.5lg 94.0 | +0.3 | 8639 | 2231 | 6.3"lg 8.4 | 14.2"lg 15.0 |
| Slider | 1.1%(−10.2) | 88.0lg 86.2 | −0.1 | 7601 | 2593 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
37 pctl · −1.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
93
xwOBA Against
93
K%
86
BB%
72
Whiff%
87
FB Velocity
94
Hard-Hit% Against
81
Spin Rate
91
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%