Shane Baz

SPQualified

Baltimore Orioles · AL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 117.7 IP · 507 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 37 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−1.2 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — fastball velo vs baseline: 96.1 actual vs 97.0 deserved.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (64% confidence).

W-L

4-9

117.7

105

ERA

4.13

WHIP

1.38

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.25

xwOBA.318

xBA.258

xSLG.402

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA4.13

wOBA.322

BA.266

SLG.417

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.1248

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00454

BA against vs xBA+.00861

SLG against vs xSLG+.01557

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	33.8%(−10.1)	96.1lg 94.5	−0.9	7561	2409	16.6"lg 15.4	9.2"lg 7.8
Curveball	33.0%(+6.1)	85.3lg 80.3	+0.3	9288	2643	-10.7"lg -10.3	5.4"lg 8.8
Cutter	16.9%(+2.2)	89.6lg 89.5	−0.6	4801	2322	6.6"lg 7.9	3.3"lg 2.4
SinkerNEW	8.2%	95.2lg 94.0	—	7004	2274	12.5"lg 8.4	14.5"lg 15.0
Changeup	8.2%(−3.2)	88.1lg 86.6	−1.2	6634	1885	9.3"lg 4.1	13.8"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

47 pctl · +0.7° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	96.1	97.0	−0.9	12	76
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	21.7	25.8	−4.1	14	73
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2409	2456	−47	18	64
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	20.7	24.8	−4.1	19	63
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.2	9.9	−0.7	19	62
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	8.3	9.0	−0.7	76	51
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	42.0	38.8	+3.2	29	42
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.6	16.7	−0.1	33	34
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	7.0	7.8	−0.8	62	24
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.266	.258	+.008	61	21
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.417	.402	+.015	57	14
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.322	.318	+.004	54	8
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	4.13	4.25	−0.12	48	3
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ NYY	W 3-2	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.4 mph
Jul 15	@ COL	W 9-7	6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.4 mph
Jul 11	vs COL	L 3-8	4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.6 mph
Jul 5	vs OAK	W 8-2	6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jul 1	@ COL	L 4-5	6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.4 mph
Jun 27	@ COL	L 5-8	6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.4 mph
Jun 23	@ TB	W 7-0	5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.1 mph
Jun 19	vs COL	W 5-2	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 97.7 mph
Jun 13	vs LAA	W 6-5	5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 96.5 mph
Jun 7	vs AZ	W 7-0	5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

33.8%(−10.1)

96.1lg 94.5

−0.9

7561

2409

16.6"lg 15.4

9.2"lg 7.8

Curveball

33.0%(+6.1)

85.3lg 80.3

+0.3

9288

2643

-10.7"lg -10.3

5.4"lg 8.8

Cutter

16.9%(+2.2)

89.6lg 89.5

−0.6

4801

2322

6.6"lg 7.9

3.3"lg 2.4

SinkerNEW

8.2%

95.2lg 94.0

—

7004

2274

12.5"lg 8.4

14.5"lg 15.0

Changeup

8.2%(−3.2)

88.1lg 86.6

−1.2

6634

1885

9.3"lg 4.1

13.8"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

96.1

97.0

−0.9

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

21.7

25.8

−4.1

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2409

2456

−47

K% vs baseline

Contact

20.7

24.8

−4.1

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.2

9.9

−0.7

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

8.3

9.0

−0.7

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

42.0

38.8

+3.2

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.6

16.7

−0.1

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

7.0

7.8

−0.8

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.266

.258

+.008

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.417

.402

+.015

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.322

.318

+.004

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

4.13

4.25

−0.12

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ NYY

W 3-2

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jul 15

@ COL

W 9-7

6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jul 11

vs COL

L 3-8

4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 5

vs OAK

W 8-2

6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jul 1

@ COL

L 4-5

6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 BB

Jun 27

@ COL

L 5-8

6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jun 23

@ TB

W 7-0

5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jun 19

vs COL

W 5-2

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jun 13

vs LAA

W 6-5

5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Jun 7

vs AZ

W 7-0

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB