Seth Lugo
SPQualifiedKansas City Royals · AL · Age 36 · Bats R / Throws R · 110.7 IP · 473 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 24 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
36
−1.6 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — spin rate vs baseline: 2276.0 actual vs 2352.0 deserved.
Most likely driver: spin down more than velocity — grip/feel or ball-in-hand change (40% confidence).
W-L
3-6
SV
0
IP
110.7
K
89
BB
36
ERA
4.39
WHIP
1.41
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.53
xwOBA.357
xBA.281
xSLG.486
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.39
wOBA.349
BA.280
SLG.465
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.1419
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00839
BA against vs xBA−.00147
SLG against vs xSLG−.02132
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 19.8%(+5.2) | 91.4lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 1424 | 2346 | 8.2"lg 8.4 | 16.4"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 17.5%(−5.5) | 75.9lg 80.3 | −1.4 | 1076 | 3093 | -11.8"lg -10.3 | 15.9"lg 8.8 |
| Cutter | 16.5%(+2.4) | 89.7lg 89.5 | +0.5 | 5018 | 2351 | 12.4"lg 7.9 | 0.6"lg 2.4 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 16.4%(−4.7) | 91.6lg 94.5 | −0.1 | 891 | 2276 | 15.7"lg 15.4 | 8.7"lg 7.8 |
| Sweeper | 10.3%(+8.3) | 79.0lg 82.5 | −1.6 | 966 | 2871 | 0.5"lg 0.9 | 16.7"lg 13.7 |
| Slider | 8.7%(+3.1) | 84.2lg 86.2 | +1.1 | 1948 | 2645 | 1.4"lg 1.5 | 5.1"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 8.6%(−1.0) | 84.8lg 86.6 | −1.4 | 2439 | 1729 | 3.4"lg 4.1 | 15.9"lg 14.0 |
| Slurve | 2.3%(−7.1) | 77.6lg 81.7 | −1.4 | — | 2935 | — | — |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
23 pctl · −2.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
19
xwOBA Against
19
K%
25
BB%
72
Whiff%
8
FB Velocity
12
Hard-Hit% Against
18
Spin Rate
44
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%