Sean Manaea

RPQualified

New York Mets · NL · Age 34 · Bats R / Throws L · 79.7 IP · 353 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 169 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+9.5 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (48% confidence).

W-L

2-5

79.7

ERA

4.74

WHIP

1.36

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.34

xwOBA.321

xBA.249

xSLG.408

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA4.74

wOBA.343

BA.262

SLG.457

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.4066

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.02276

BA against vs xBA+.01367

SLG against vs xSLG+.04978

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	33.8%(−26.7)	90.6lg 94.5	−1.1	398	2032	10.8"lg 15.4	13.7"lg 7.8
Sweeper	32.1%(−1.8)	75.5lg 82.5	−2.2	190	2274	2.2"lg 0.9	13.6"lg 13.7
SinkerNEW	21.5%	90.2lg 94.0	—	622	2042	4.3"lg 8.4	18.2"lg 15.0
CutterNEW	8.7%	84.3lg 89.5	—	307	2137	6.9"lg 7.9	2.5"lg 2.4
Changeup	3.8%(−1.8)	83.2lg 86.6	−1.5	1317	1554	—lg 4.1	—lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

5 pctl · −0.5° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	90.6	91.7	−1.1	8	84
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	21.5	26.8	−5.3	9	83
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	22.9	28.5	−5.6	12	76
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	7.4	4.6	+2.8	15	71
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.457	.408	+.049	78	55
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	13.7	14.1	−0.4	22	55
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.343	.321	+.022	76	52
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	10.8	10.9	−0.1	32	37
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.262	.249	+.013	67	34
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	4.74	4.34	+0.40	66	32
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	40.5	38.8	+1.7	36	29
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	8.4	7.8	+0.6	36	29
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2032	2049	−17	37	26
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ WSH	W 4-0	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jul 19	vs BAL	W 9-2	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jul 18	@ TEX	L 5-10	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.7 mph
Jul 16	vs TEX	L 3-9	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.6 mph
Jul 15	@ LAA	W 8-3	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.1 mph
Jul 14	vs OAK	L 2-8	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.3 mph
Jul 12	vs MIL	W 9-5	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 89.6 mph
Jul 11	vs SF	L 0-4	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.3 mph
Jul 8	@ WSH	L 3-6	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.5 mph
Jul 7	vs NYY	W 3-0	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.3 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

33.8%(−26.7)

90.6lg 94.5

−1.1

398

2032

10.8"lg 15.4

13.7"lg 7.8

Sweeper

32.1%(−1.8)

75.5lg 82.5

−2.2

190

2274

2.2"lg 0.9

13.6"lg 13.7

SinkerNEW

21.5%

90.2lg 94.0

—

622

2042

4.3"lg 8.4

18.2"lg 15.0

CutterNEW

8.7%

84.3lg 89.5

—

307

2137

6.9"lg 7.9

2.5"lg 2.4

Changeup

3.8%(−1.8)

83.2lg 86.6

−1.5

1317

1554

—lg 4.1

—lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

90.6

91.7

−1.1

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

21.5

26.8

−5.3

K% vs baseline

Contact

22.9

28.5

−5.6

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

7.4

4.6

+2.8

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.457

.408

+.049

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

13.7

14.1

−0.4

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.343

.321

+.022

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

10.8

10.9

−0.1

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.262

.249

+.013

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

4.74

4.34

+0.40

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

40.5

38.8

+1.7

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

8.4

7.8

+0.6

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2032

2049

−17

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ WSH

W 4-0

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 2 BB

Jul 19

vs BAL

W 9-2

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 18

@ TEX

L 5-10

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 16

vs TEX

L 3-9

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 15

@ LAA

W 8-3

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 14

vs OAK

L 2-8

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 12

vs MIL

W 9-5

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jul 11

vs SF

L 0-4

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 8

@ WSH

L 3-6

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs NYY

W 3-0

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB