Scott Barlow

RPQualified

ATH · AL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 33.3 IP · 152 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 137 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+0.1 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (28% confidence).

W-L

2-0

33.3

ERA

6.48

WHIP

1.35

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA5.60

xwOBA.359

xBA.236

xSLG.448

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA6.48

wOBA.341

BA.210

SLG.435

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.8877

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01827

BA against vs xBA−.02619

SLG against vs xSLG−.01336

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sweeper	35.4%(+6.9)	79.2lg 82.5	−2.3	1155	2395	7.8"lg 0.9	10.9"lg 13.7
Curveball	34.2%(+17.8)	76.2lg 80.3	−2.2	1282	2508	-7.2"lg -10.3	14.9"lg 8.8
Sinker	13.3%(−1.4)	89.1lg 94.0	−3.4	285	2146	7.3"lg 8.4	13.8"lg 15.0
4-Seam Fastball	13.1%(−8.2)	89.0lg 94.5	−3.3	112	2321	11.5"lg 15.4	3.8"lg 7.8
Slider	4.0%(−15.0)	82.5lg 86.2	−1.8	855	2460	—lg 1.5	—lg 4.1

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

14 pctl · +1.2° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	89.0	92.3	−3.3	1	98
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2321	2441	−120	4	93
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	19.0	24.8	−5.8	11	78
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	13.1	14.9	−1.8	85	70
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	11.5	12.3	−0.8	17	65
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	33.1	30.8	+2.3	82	65
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.210	.236	−.026	19	63
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	6.48	5.60	+0.88	77	54
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	3.8	3.6	+0.2	75	50
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.3	7.8	+1.5	27	47
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.341	.359	−.018	27	46
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	36.1	38.8	−2.7	69	38
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.435	.448	−.013	36	27
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ MIA	L 1-7	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 89.3 mph
Jul 18	@ ATL	W 7-1	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 88.5 mph
Jul 15	@ CHC	L 0-6	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 88.7 mph
Jul 13	vs LAA	L 4-7	1.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.3 mph
Jul 11	@ BAL	L 1-2	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.7 mph
Jul 10	@ CHC	W 5-3	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 88.3 mph
Jul 9	vs AZ	W 7-2	1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.8 mph
Jul 7	@ NYM	W 9-7	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.0 mph
Jul 4	vs ATL	L 0-10	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.3 mph
Jul 3	vs CWS	L 0-3	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 88.6 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sweeper

35.4%(+6.9)

79.2lg 82.5

−2.3

1155

2395

7.8"lg 0.9

10.9"lg 13.7

Curveball

34.2%(+17.8)

76.2lg 80.3

−2.2

1282

2508

-7.2"lg -10.3

14.9"lg 8.8

Sinker

13.3%(−1.4)

89.1lg 94.0

−3.4

285

2146

7.3"lg 8.4

13.8"lg 15.0

4-Seam Fastball

13.1%(−8.2)

89.0lg 94.5

−3.3

112

2321

11.5"lg 15.4

3.8"lg 7.8

Slider

4.0%(−15.0)

82.5lg 86.2

−1.8

855

2460

—lg 1.5

—lg 4.1

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

89.0

92.3

−3.3

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2321

2441

−120

K% vs baseline

Contact

19.0

24.8

−5.8

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

13.1

14.9

−1.8

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

11.5

12.3

−0.8

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

33.1

30.8

+2.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.210

.236

−.026

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

6.48

5.60

+0.88

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

3.8

3.6

+0.2

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.3

7.8

+1.5

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.341

.359

−.018

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

36.1

38.8

−2.7

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.435

.448

−.013

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ MIA

L 1-7

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 18

@ ATL

W 7-1

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 15

@ CHC

L 0-6

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 13

vs LAA

L 4-7

1.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 11

@ BAL

L 1-2

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 10

@ CHC

W 5-3

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 9

vs AZ

W 7-2

1.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

@ NYM

W 9-7

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 4

vs ATL

L 0-10

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 3

vs CWS

L 0-3

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB