Sam Bachman

RPQualified

Los Angeles Angels · AL · Age 26 · Bats R / Throws R · 43.3 IP · 182 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 26 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−1.2 last 7 days

BUYThe process is ahead of the results — fastball velo vs baseline: 98.7 actual vs 96.3 deserved.

Most likely driver: era overstates the problem â€” results behind the process (42% confidence).

W-L

1-2

43.3

ERA

3.95

WHIP

1.25

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.34

xwOBA.284

xBA.212

xSLG.315

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.95

wOBA.303

BA.212

SLG.369

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.6171

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01972

BA against vs xBA+.00049

SLG against vs xSLG+.05479

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Slider	51.8%(−3.6)	88.6lg 86.2	+0.8	8278	2686	-1.2"lg 1.5	2.1"lg 4.1
Sinker	31.0%(−3.1)	98.7lg 94.0	+1.5	9747	2359	8.1"lg 8.4	16.7"lg 15.0
Changeup	14.6%(+5.9)	91.7lg 86.6	+0.9	9537	1871	-2.1"lg 4.1	15.3"lg 14.0
4-Seam Fastball	2.2%(+0.4)	98.7lg 94.5	+2.4	9715	2306	—lg 15.4	—lg 7.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

38 pctl · −0.7° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	98.7	96.3	+2.4	99	98
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	33.3	26.8	+6.5	96	92
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2306	2255	+51	91	81
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	24.7	19.1	+5.6	91	81
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	32.2	38.8	−6.6	87	75
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.369	.315	+.054	79	58
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.303	.284	+.019	72	44
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.95	3.34	+0.61	71	42
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	11.0	10.6	+0.4	37	26
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	7.0	7.8	−0.8	62	23
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	5.3	5.3	±0.0	55	10
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.212	.212	+.000	49	1
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.7	9.7	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs BAL	L 4-5	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.2 mph
Jul 19	vs ATL	W 7-1	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.5 mph
Jul 17	@ AZ	W 7-3	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.7 mph
Jul 15	vs MIN	L 4-5	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.4 mph
Jul 14	@ LAD	W 6-5	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.8 mph
Jul 13	vs MIL	L 0-7	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.7 mph
Jul 12	@ PIT	L 0-4	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.0 mph
Jul 11	@ CWS	W 5-2	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 99.0 mph
Jul 10	@ MIA	W 6-2	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.7 mph
Jul 7	@ MIL	W 9-0	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.4 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Slider

51.8%(−3.6)

88.6lg 86.2

+0.8

8278

2686

-1.2"lg 1.5

2.1"lg 4.1

Sinker

31.0%(−3.1)

98.7lg 94.0

+1.5

9747

2359

8.1"lg 8.4

16.7"lg 15.0

Changeup

14.6%(+5.9)

91.7lg 86.6

+0.9

9537

1871

-2.1"lg 4.1

15.3"lg 14.0

4-Seam Fastball

2.2%(+0.4)

98.7lg 94.5

+2.4

9715

2306

—lg 15.4

—lg 7.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

98.7

96.3

+2.4

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

33.3

26.8

+6.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2306

2255

+51

K% vs baseline

Contact

24.7

19.1

+5.6

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

32.2

38.8

−6.6

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.369

.315

+.054

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.303

.284

+.019

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.95

3.34

+0.61

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

11.0

10.6

+0.4

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

7.0

7.8

−0.8

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

5.3

±0.0

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.212

+.000

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.7

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs BAL

L 4-5

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 19

vs ATL

W 7-1

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

@ AZ

W 7-3

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

vs MIN

L 4-5

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 14

@ LAD

W 6-5

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 13

vs MIL

L 0-7

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 12

@ PIT

L 0-4

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 11

@ CWS

W 5-2

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 10

@ MIA

W 6-2

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

@ MIL

W 9-0

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB