Ryan Gusto
SPMiami Marlins · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 28.7 IP · 132 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 244 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
12
+2.2 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (22% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +4.3°.
W-L
0-2
SV
0
IP
28.7
K
25
BB
10
ERA
5.02
WHIP
1.47
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.84
xwOBA.337
xBA.270
xSLG.432
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.02
wOBA.328
BA.267
SLG.408
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.1858
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00938
BA against vs xBA−.00344
SLG against vs xSLG−.02429
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 25.8%(−17.9) | 93.9lg 94.5 | −0.2 | 3659 | 2411 | 17.7"lg 15.4 | 5.0"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 19.4%(+9.9) | 87.2lg 86.6 | −0.1 | 5659 | 1333 | 3.4"lg 4.1 | 12.9"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 14.0%(+3.4) | 92.8lg 94.0 | −0.7 | 2954 | 2203 | 8.3"lg 8.4 | 14.6"lg 15.0 |
| Cutter | 13.2%(+2.2) | 89.0lg 89.5 | −0.1 | 4224 | 2377 | 8.4"lg 7.9 | 4.5"lg 2.4 |
| Sweeper | 11.8%(+1.6) | 82.3lg 82.5 | −0.1 | 4776 | 2501 | -0.6"lg 0.9 | 14.6"lg 13.7 |
| SliderNEW | 9.9% | 85.7lg 86.2 | — | 3682 | 2424 | 0.4"lg 1.5 | 3.9"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 6.0%(−8.9) | 79.2lg 80.3 | −1.1 | 3513 | 2572 | -16.1"lg -10.3 | 7.5"lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +4.3°
Arm slot
84 pctl · +4.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
33
xwOBA Against
33
K%
26
BB%
72
Whiff%
16
FB Velocity
39
Hard-Hit% Against
22
Spin Rate
80
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%