Roki Sasaki
SPQualifiedLos Angeles Dodgers · NL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws R · 86.7 IP · 374 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 15 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
44
−1.4 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — spin rate vs baseline: 2246.0 actual vs 2085.0 deserved.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (51% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +4.9°.
W-L
3-5
SV
0
IP
86.7
K
85
BB
34
ERA
4.98
WHIP
1.34
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.59
xwOBA.329
xBA.246
xSLG.427
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.98
wOBA.350
BA.246
SLG.486
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.3965
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.02174
BA against vs xBA+.00049
SLG against vs xSLG+.05981
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 47.7%(−27.3) | 97.7lg 94.5 | +1.6 | 9308 | 2246 | 16.1"lg 15.4 | 9.5"lg 7.8 |
| SplitterNEW | 28.5% | 90.2lg 86.7 | — | 8624 | 921 | 1.1"lg 3.1 | 7.7"lg 11.1 |
| SliderNEW | 23.8% | 86.6lg 86.2 | — | 5261 | 2038 | -1.9"lg 1.5 | 1.3"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +4.9°
Arm slot
86 pctl · +4.9° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
40
xwOBA Against
40
K%
59
BB%
55
Whiff%
78
FB Velocity
93
Hard-Hit% Against
14
Spin Rate
34
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%