Robbie Ray

SPQualified

San Francisco Giants · NL · Age 34 · Bats L / Throws L · 110.7 IP · 465 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 5 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+0.2 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — horizontal break vs baseline: 9.2 actual vs 8.2 deserved.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

8-6

110.7

ERA

3.33

WHIP

1.30

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.62

xwOBA.330

xBA.239

xSLG.423

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.33

wOBA.305

BA.223

SLG.377

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.2915

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.02519

BA against vs xBA−.01628

SLG against vs xSLG−.04618

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	34.9%(−16.9)	93.3lg 94.5	−0.3	2846	2334	17.5"lg 15.4	9.2"lg 7.8
Slider	26.2%(+3.6)	86.0lg 86.2	−1.9	4133	2215	6.4"lg 1.5	1.4"lg 4.1
Changeup	17.0%(+4.0)	86.0lg 86.6	+1.2	3988	1622	10.8"lg 4.1	10.8"lg 14.0
Sinker	11.6%(+11.5)	92.4lg 94.0	−1.6	2500	2215	11.4"lg 8.4	14.4"lg 15.0
Curveball	10.2%(−1.9)	79.6lg 80.3	−1.6	3782	2185	-6.8"lg -10.3	3.8"lg 8.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

75 pctl · −1.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.2	8.2	+1.0	86	72
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.33	4.62	−1.29	15	70
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.377	.423	−.046	18	65
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	17.5	18.2	−0.7	19	62
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	20.6	24.6	−4.0	19	62
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.305	.330	−.025	19	61
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	25.0	27.8	−2.8	20	59
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	11.6	9.7	+1.9	21	59
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.2	7.8	+1.4	27	46
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.223	.239	−.016	28	44
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2334	2360	−26	31	37
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	93.3	93.6	−0.3	32	37
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	38.4	38.8	−0.4	57	15
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs WSH	W 4-0	6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 93.7 mph
Jul 16	@ PHI	W 7-4	5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 10	@ CIN	W 7-1	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.6 mph
Jul 4	@ MIN	L 5-6	6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.1 mph
Jun 30	@ PHI	W 7-4	4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.4 mph
Jun 24	vs NYY	L 5-6	7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 93.6 mph
Jun 19	@ STL	L 3-8	4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 93.5 mph
Jun 13	@ SEA	L 0-10	6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 94.2 mph
Jun 9	vs BOS	L 1-2	4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.1 mph
Jun 3	@ BOS	L 3-9	4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

34.9%(−16.9)

93.3lg 94.5

−0.3

2846

2334

17.5"lg 15.4

9.2"lg 7.8

Slider

26.2%(+3.6)

86.0lg 86.2

−1.9

4133

2215

6.4"lg 1.5

1.4"lg 4.1

Changeup

17.0%(+4.0)

86.0lg 86.6

+1.2

3988

1622

10.8"lg 4.1

10.8"lg 14.0

Sinker

11.6%(+11.5)

92.4lg 94.0

−1.6

2500

2215

11.4"lg 8.4

14.4"lg 15.0

Curveball

10.2%(−1.9)

79.6lg 80.3

−1.6

3782

2185

-6.8"lg -10.3

3.8"lg 8.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.2

8.2

+1.0

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.33

4.62

−1.29

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.377

.423

−.046

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

17.5

18.2

−0.7

K% vs baseline

Contact

20.6

24.6

−4.0

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.305

.330

−.025

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

25.0

27.8

−2.8

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

11.6

9.7

+1.9

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.2

7.8

+1.4

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.223

.239

−.016

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2334

2360

−26

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

93.3

93.6

−0.3

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

38.4

38.8

−0.4

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs WSH

W 4-0

6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jul 16

@ PHI

W 7-4

5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jul 10

@ CIN

W 7-1

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jul 4

@ MIN

L 5-6

6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB

Jun 30

@ PHI

W 7-4

4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 24

vs NYY

L 5-6

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 4 BB

Jun 19

@ STL

L 3-8

4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Jun 13

@ SEA

L 0-10

6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 4 BB

Jun 9

vs BOS

L 1-2

4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jun 3

@ BOS

L 3-9

4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 2 BB