Rob Refsnyder

Seattle Mariners · AL · Age 35 · Bats R / Throws R · 119 PA

— NeutralHOLDRank 520 of 527 hitters by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+0.2 last 7 days

HOLDBalancedProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age) (33% confidence).

119

RBI

AVG

.133

OBP

.203

SLG

.219

OPS

.422

DefenseSprint 26.9 ft/s36p

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xBA.169

xSLG.289

xwOBA.249

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

BA.133

SLG.219

wOBA.195

BABIP.151

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

AVG vs xBA−.03689

SLG vs xSLG−.07090

wOBA vs xwOBA−.05495

BABIP vs xBABIP−.13098

Swing DNA & matchups

2026 bat tracking with league percentiles · matchups vs every pitch type, minimum 10 PA

Balanced

No single trait dominates — a league-typical swing shape.

The swing

Bat Speed71.9 mph51 pctl

Swing Length7.6 ft76 pctl

Fast-Swing Rate18.8%49 pctl

Squared-Up Rate21.0%29 pctl

Percentiles vs all tracked hitters. Attack angle/direction and tilt are swing-weighted averages across batting sides. Swing type from editable rules — first match wins.

vs pitch types

Pitch	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	lg xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	RV/100
4-Seam Fastball	41	.210	.225	.327	25.3lg 22.0	29.3	-3.7
Sinker	18	.156	.353	.351	19.4lg 13.7	16.7	-3.9
Changeup	16	.213	.248	.278	31.0lg 31.5	25.0	-1.2
Slider	11	.082	.045	.288	45.0lg 33.5	54.5	-4.7
Cutter	10	.090	.353	.351	26.1lg 22.5	0.0	-4.1
Curveball	12	.208	.131	.281	27.8lg 30.8	41.7	-1.5

xwOBA green/red when 20+ points above/below league vs that pitch. RV/100 = run value per 100 pitches seen (positive favors the hitter). Source: Savant pitch arsenal stats.

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
xBABIP BABIP vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.151	.281	−.130	98	96
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	5.9	11.5	−5.6	4	92
xwOBA wOBA vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.195	.249	−.054	95	90
Bat Speed Bat speed vs baseline	Swing	71.9	73.2	−1.3	6	88
xSLG SLG vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.219	.289	−.070	90	81
xBA AVG vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.133	.169	−.036	89	77
Chase% Chase% vs baseline	Discipline	24.4	19.1	+5.3	21	58
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	27.5	25.3	+2.2	26	48
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% vs league	Quality of Contact	33.8	37.6	−3.8	30	41
Swing Length Swing length vs baseline	Swing	7.6	7.6	−0.0	67	35
K% K% vs baseline	Discipline	26.9	25.8	+1.1	35	30
Barrel% Barrel% vs league	Quality of Contact	6.5	7.6	−1.1	39	21
EV Trend Recent EV vs season EV	Quality of Contact	86.1	86.1	±0.0	50	0
LA Trend Launch angle vs optimal	Quality of Contact	19.1	19.1	±0.0	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs ATL	L 5-7	0-3	Max EV 88.0 mph
Jul 18	vs WSH	W 3-2	2-3, BB	Max EV 88.0 mph
Jul 16	vs AZ	W 6-0	0-4	Max EV 94.3 mph
Jul 14	vs DET	W 9-0	0-5	Max EV 92.8 mph
Jul 13	@ TEX	L 4-8	0-3	Max EV 93.1 mph
Jul 11	vs COL	W 6-4	0-4	Max EV 97.3 mph
Jul 9	@ CLE	W 5-0	0-4	Max EV 100.0 mph
Jul 8	@ MIA	W 4-0	0-3, BB	Max EV 94.6 mph
Jul 6	@ TB	L 3-5	1-4, 2 RBI	Max EV 96.0 mph
Jul 5	vs AZ	W 4-0	0-4	Max EV 98.7 mph

Percentile rankings

xwOBA

Hard-Hit%

Barrel%

Avg Exit Velo

Bat Speed

BB%

Chase%

30-day rolling trends

Rolling wOBA vs xwOBA

wOBAxwOBA

Rolling Hard-Hit%

Rolling Barrel%

Rolling Exit Velocity

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

wOBA

xwOBA

lg xwOBA

Whiff%

RV/100

4-Seam Fastball

.210

.225

.327

25.3lg 22.0

29.3

-3.7

Sinker

.156

.353

.351

19.4lg 13.7

16.7

-3.9

Changeup

.213

.248

.278

31.0lg 31.5

25.0

-1.2

Slider

.082

.045

.288

45.0lg 33.5

54.5

-4.7

Cutter

.090

.353

.351

26.1lg 22.5

0.0

-4.1

Curveball

.208

.131

.281

27.8lg 30.8

41.7

-1.5

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

xBABIP

BABIP vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.151

.281

−.130

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

5.9

11.5

−5.6

xwOBA

wOBA vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.195

.249

−.054

Bat Speed

Bat speed vs baseline

Swing

71.9

73.2

−1.3

xSLG

SLG vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.219

.289

−.070

xBA

AVG vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.133

.169

−.036

Chase%

Chase% vs baseline

Discipline

24.4

19.1

+5.3

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

27.5

25.3

+2.2

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% vs league

Quality of Contact

33.8

37.6

−3.8

Swing Length

Swing length vs baseline

Swing

7.6

−0.0

K% vs baseline

Discipline

26.9

25.8

+1.1

Barrel%

Barrel% vs league

Quality of Contact

6.5

7.6

−1.1

EV Trend

Recent EV vs season EV

Quality of Contact

86.1

±0.0

LA Trend

Launch angle vs optimal

Quality of Contact

19.1

±0.0

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs ATL

L 5-7

0-3

Jul 18

vs WSH

W 3-2

2-3, BB

Jul 16

vs AZ

W 6-0

0-4

Jul 14

vs DET

W 9-0

0-5

Jul 13

@ TEX

L 4-8

0-3

Jul 11

vs COL

W 6-4

0-4

Jul 9

@ CLE

W 5-0

0-4

Jul 8

@ MIA

W 4-0

0-3, BB

Jul 6

@ TB

L 3-5

1-4, 2 RBI

Jul 5

vs AZ

W 4-0

0-4