Ranger Suarez

SPQualified

Boston Red Sox · AL · Age 30 · Bats L / Throws L · 91.3 IP · 376 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 40 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−0.3 last 7 days

BUYThe process is ahead of the results — spin rate vs baseline: 2056.0 actual vs 1949.0 deserved.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (40% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +4.5°.

W-L

4-3

91.3

ERA

3.15

WHIP

1.16

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.31

xwOBA.283

xBA.237

xSLG.338

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.15

wOBA.276

BA.232

SLG.333

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.1647

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00741

BA against vs xBA−.00542

SLG against vs xSLG−.00542

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	23.7%(−4.9)	90.5lg 94.0	+0.4	749	1996	6.1"lg 8.4	13.7"lg 15.0
4-Seam Fastball	21.9%(+7.4)	91.7lg 94.5	+0.4	978	2056	12.0"lg 15.4	4.4"lg 7.8
Cutter	20.6%(+3.0)	88.1lg 89.5	+1.7	3032	2118	8.0"lg 7.9	1.5"lg 2.4
Curveball	16.8%(+0.7)	75.4lg 80.3	+1.5	886	2201	-10.0"lg -10.3	10.9"lg 8.8
Changeup	14.4%(−4.7)	81.1lg 86.6	+1.6	683	1272	2.6"lg 4.1	10.2"lg 14.0
Slider	2.6%(−1.5)	78.2lg 86.2	−1.4	178	2266	—lg 1.5	—lg 4.1

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +4.5°

Arm slot

61 pctl · +4.5° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2056	1949	+107	98	96
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	4.4	6.1	−1.7	7	86
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	31.1	38.8	−7.7	90	79
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	12.0	11.5	+0.5	87	74
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	5.2	7.8	−2.6	84	68
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	25.8	23.2	+2.6	81	62
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	91.7	91.3	+0.4	80	61
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	24.2	22.2	+2.0	80	61
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	6.9	5.8	+1.1	28	43
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.276	.283	−.007	41	19
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.333	.338	−.005	42	16
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.232	.237	−.005	42	16
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.15	3.31	−0.16	47	7
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs STL	L 2-6	4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.6 mph
Jul 14	vs CIN	L 4-7	7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.4 mph
Jul 9	vs NYM	W 7-2	6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jul 5	@ CHC	W 6-0	4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 92.4 mph
Jul 1	@ MIL	W 6-5	4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.5 mph
Jun 25	@ SEA	L 1-4	5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.3 mph
Jun 20	@ KC	L 0-5	7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.5 mph
Jun 14	@ LAD	L 3-8	4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jun 9	vs MIN	W 4-3	6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 91.7 mph
Jun 3	vs NYM	W 5-4	6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.6 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

23.7%(−4.9)

90.5lg 94.0

+0.4

749

1996

6.1"lg 8.4

13.7"lg 15.0

4-Seam Fastball

21.9%(+7.4)

91.7lg 94.5

+0.4

978

2056

12.0"lg 15.4

4.4"lg 7.8

Cutter

20.6%(+3.0)

88.1lg 89.5

+1.7

3032

2118

8.0"lg 7.9

1.5"lg 2.4

Curveball

16.8%(+0.7)

75.4lg 80.3

+1.5

886

2201

-10.0"lg -10.3

10.9"lg 8.8

Changeup

14.4%(−4.7)

81.1lg 86.6

+1.6

683

1272

2.6"lg 4.1

10.2"lg 14.0

Slider

2.6%(−1.5)

78.2lg 86.2

−1.4

178

2266

—lg 1.5

—lg 4.1

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2056

1949

+107

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

4.4

6.1

−1.7

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

31.1

38.8

−7.7

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

12.0

11.5

+0.5

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

5.2

7.8

−2.6

K% vs baseline

Contact

25.8

23.2

+2.6

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

91.7

91.3

+0.4

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

24.2

22.2

+2.0

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

6.9

5.8

+1.1

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.276

.283

−.007

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.333

.338

−.005

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.232

.237

−.005

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.15

3.31

−0.16

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs STL

L 2-6

4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jul 14

vs CIN

L 4-7

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB

Jul 9

vs NYM

W 7-2

6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

Jul 5

@ CHC

W 6-0

4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 1

@ MIL

W 6-5

4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jun 25

@ SEA

L 1-4

5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jun 20

@ KC

L 0-5

7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jun 14

@ LAD

L 3-8

4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 9

vs MIN

W 4-3

6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 4 BB

Jun 3

vs NYM

W 5-4

6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB