PJ Poulin

RPQualified

Washington Nationals · NL · Age 29 · Bats R / Throws L · 36.7 IP · 153 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 20 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+1.1 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — whiff% vs baseline: 16.9 actual vs 26.6 deserved.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (27% confidence).

W-L

3-0

36.7

ERA

2.70

WHIP

1.31

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA5.38

xwOBA.353

xBA.256

xSLG.441

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.70

wOBA.302

BA.206

SLG.351

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−2.683

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0516

BA against vs xBA−.0505

SLG against vs xSLG−.0906

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sweeper	35.3%(+11.2)	79.0lg 82.5	+0.4	966	2369	5.5"lg 0.9	7.7"lg 13.7
4-Seam Fastball	29.8%(−14.6)	90.1lg 94.5	−0.7	251	2179	8.6"lg 15.4	14.7"lg 7.8
Sinker	23.1%(+14.0)	89.0lg 94.0	−0.8	232	2094	0.9"lg 8.4	17.3"lg 15.0
Changeup	11.8%(−10.6)	80.4lg 86.6	+0.1	415	1554	-2.7"lg 4.1	13.6"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

4 pctl · −1.1° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	16.9	26.6	−9.7	2	97
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.70	5.38	−2.68	3	95
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.206	.256	−.050	5	90
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	16.3	24.5	−8.2	5	89
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.351	.441	−.090	6	89
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.302	.353	−.051	6	88
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	44.3	38.8	+5.5	16	67
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	90.1	90.8	−0.7	17	66
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	13.7	11.8	+1.9	21	57
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.4	7.8	+1.6	26	48
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2179	2190	−11	40	20
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	8.6	8.6	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	14.7	14.7	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ HOU	L 3-7	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.7 mph
Jul 18	@ COL	W 5-4	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 89.2 mph
Jul 17	@ NYY	L 0-9	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.3 mph
Jul 15	vs ATL	W 7-0	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.8 mph
Jul 13	vs TOR	L 2-7	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.1 mph
Jul 10	vs TB	L 2-3	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 88.6 mph
Jul 7	vs CIN	L 5-8	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.9 mph
Jul 4	@ PIT	L 1-9	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.0 mph
Jul 2	vs LAD	W 3-2	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.0 mph
Jun 30	vs CWS	W 3-0	1.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 91.3 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sweeper

35.3%(+11.2)

79.0lg 82.5

+0.4

966

2369

5.5"lg 0.9

7.7"lg 13.7

4-Seam Fastball

29.8%(−14.6)

90.1lg 94.5

−0.7

251

2179

8.6"lg 15.4

14.7"lg 7.8

Sinker

23.1%(+14.0)

89.0lg 94.0

−0.8

232

2094

0.9"lg 8.4

17.3"lg 15.0

Changeup

11.8%(−10.6)

80.4lg 86.6

+0.1

415

1554

-2.7"lg 4.1

13.6"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

16.9

26.6

−9.7

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.70

5.38

−2.68

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.206

.256

−.050

K% vs baseline

Contact

16.3

24.5

−8.2

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.351

.441

−.090

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.302

.353

−.051

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

44.3

38.8

+5.5

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

90.1

90.8

−0.7

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

13.7

11.8

+1.9

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.4

7.8

+1.6

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2179

2190

−11

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

8.6

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

14.7

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ HOU

L 3-7

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 18

@ COL

W 5-4

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

@ NYY

L 0-9

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 15

vs ATL

W 7-0

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 13

vs TOR

L 2-7

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 10

vs TB

L 2-3

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

vs CIN

L 5-8

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 4

@ PIT

L 1-9

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 2

vs LAD

W 3-2

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jun 30

vs CWS

W 3-0

1.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 0 BB