Paul Skenes

SPQualified

Pittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws R · 115.3 IP · 465 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 101 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+10.8 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (53% confidence).

W-L

9-8

115.3

138

ERA

3.43

WHIP

1.04

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA2.76

xwOBA.259

xBA.205

xSLG.320

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.43

wOBA.279

BA.221

SLG.359

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.6772

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.02073

BA against vs xBA+.01670

SLG against vs xSLG+.03973

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	41.0%(+2.1)	96.9lg 94.5	−1.3	8581	2180	13.0"lg 15.4	12.5"lg 7.8
Changeup	15.1%(+4.2)	88.8lg 86.6	+0.1	7537	1843	6.5"lg 4.1	15.4"lg 14.0
Sweeper	15.1%(−0.7)	84.2lg 82.5	−0.3	7276	2355	5.5"lg 0.9	10.6"lg 13.7
Splitter	11.4%(−2.1)	93.4lg 86.7	−0.3	9862	1645	1.5"lg 3.1	13.2"lg 11.1
Sinker	10.5%(+0.1)	96.7lg 94.0	−0.9	8819	2174	7.4"lg 8.4	17.2"lg 15.0
Slider	6.3%(+0.7)	86.6lg 86.2	+1.3	5261	2323	1.2"lg 1.5	3.9"lg 4.1

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

17 pctl · +2.2° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	13.0	11.6	+1.4	97	94
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	96.9	98.2	−1.3	6	89
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	12.5	14.0	−1.5	9	83
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2180	2255	−75	10	81
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	27.8	30.1	−2.3	25	51
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.1	7.8	−1.7	74	47
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.279	.259	+.020	73	46
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.359	.320	+.039	73	46
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.43	2.76	+0.67	72	44
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.221	.205	+.016	70	39
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	5.6	5.7	−0.1	69	37
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	29.7	29.5	+0.2	67	34
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	37.9	38.8	−0.9	60	19
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs CWS	W 3-2	6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.8 mph
Jul 16	vs BAL	L 5-9	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.8 mph
Jul 12	vs CHC	L 4-5	5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.7 mph
Jul 6	@ MIA	L 0-6	5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.8 mph
Jul 1	@ KC	L 0-9	5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.9 mph
Jun 26	@ OAK	W 7-6	4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 97.2 mph
Jun 20	@ NYM	W 9-8	6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jun 16	@ MIN	L 3-4	4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.9 mph
Jun 12	vs KC	L 5-6	5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.3 mph
Jun 6	vs TEX	L 4-8	5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 97.8 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

41.0%(+2.1)

96.9lg 94.5

−1.3

8581

2180

13.0"lg 15.4

12.5"lg 7.8

Changeup

15.1%(+4.2)

88.8lg 86.6

+0.1

7537

1843

6.5"lg 4.1

15.4"lg 14.0

Sweeper

15.1%(−0.7)

84.2lg 82.5

−0.3

7276

2355

5.5"lg 0.9

10.6"lg 13.7

Splitter

11.4%(−2.1)

93.4lg 86.7

−0.3

9862

1645

1.5"lg 3.1

13.2"lg 11.1

Sinker

10.5%(+0.1)

96.7lg 94.0

−0.9

8819

2174

7.4"lg 8.4

17.2"lg 15.0

Slider

6.3%(+0.7)

86.6lg 86.2

+1.3

5261

2323

1.2"lg 1.5

3.9"lg 4.1

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

13.0

11.6

+1.4

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

96.9

98.2

−1.3

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

12.5

14.0

−1.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2180

2255

−75

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

27.8

30.1

−2.3

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.1

7.8

−1.7

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.279

.259

+.020

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.359

.320

+.039

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.43

2.76

+0.67

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.221

.205

+.016

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

5.6

5.7

−0.1

K% vs baseline

Contact

29.7

29.5

+0.2

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

37.9

38.8

−0.9

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs CWS

W 3-2

6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 1 BB

Jul 16

vs BAL

L 5-9

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Jul 12

vs CHC

L 4-5

5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Jul 6

@ MIA

L 0-6

5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jul 1

@ KC

L 0-9

5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 26

@ OAK

W 7-6

4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 20

@ NYM

W 9-8

6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB

Jun 16

@ MIN

L 3-4

4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 12

vs KC

L 5-6

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jun 6

vs TEX

L 4-8

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB