Paul Blackburn

RPQualified

New York Yankees · AL · Age 32 · Bats R / Throws R · 52.0 IP · 203 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 558 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+1.5 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (30% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.8°.

W-L

2-1

52.0

ERA

2.08

WHIP

1.08

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.62

xwOBA.295

xBA.236

xSLG.361

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.08

wOBA.263

BA.211

SLG.297

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.5411

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.03214

BA against vs xBA−.02519

SLG against vs xSLG−.06410

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	32.3%(+1.8)	94.2lg 94.0	+1.6	5158	2057	10.3"lg 8.4	13.5"lg 15.0
Cutter	24.8%(−2.2)	91.6lg 89.5	+1.6	7996	2462	8.6"lg 7.9	3.5"lg 2.4
Changeup	17.9%(+8.0)	87.4lg 86.6	+0.9	5951	1778	6.5"lg 4.1	13.3"lg 14.0
Curveball	14.3%(+1.8)	81.0lg 80.3	+0.5	5601	2722	-17.4"lg -10.3	8.5"lg 8.8
Sweeper	6.5%(−9.7)	83.5lg 82.5	+1.9	6431	2733	-3.4"lg 0.9	15.0"lg 13.7
4-Seam Fastball	3.6%(−0.3)	94.6lg 94.5	+2.1	5173	2266	—lg 15.4	—lg 7.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +3.8°

Arm slot

78 pctl · +3.8° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	94.6	92.5	+2.1	99	98
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2266	2215	+51	91	81
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.297	.361	−.064	10	80
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.08	3.62	−1.54	11	78
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.263	.295	−.032	14	71
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	32.7	38.8	−6.1	86	71
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.211	.236	−.025	19	62
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	8.4	6.9	+1.5	25	50
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	20.7	22.5	−1.8	29	42
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.8	7.8	−1.0	64	28
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	18.7	19.4	−0.7	38	24
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	5.3	5.3	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.7	9.7	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs ATL	W 5-1	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 93.7 mph
Jul 19	@ AZ	L 2-10	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 17	@ DET	W 3-2	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jul 14	vs NYM	L 1-9	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.1 mph
Jul 12	@ TB	W 7-4	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.3 mph
Jul 9	@ COL	W 6-2	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.8 mph
Jul 8	@ PHI	L 1-4	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.5 mph
Jul 7	vs TOR	L 2-6	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.9 mph
Jul 4	@ DET	W 9-4	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jul 3	@ WSH	L 3-5	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 93.7 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

32.3%(+1.8)

94.2lg 94.0

+1.6

5158

2057

10.3"lg 8.4

13.5"lg 15.0

Cutter

24.8%(−2.2)

91.6lg 89.5

+1.6

7996

2462

8.6"lg 7.9

3.5"lg 2.4

Changeup

17.9%(+8.0)

87.4lg 86.6

+0.9

5951

1778

6.5"lg 4.1

13.3"lg 14.0

Curveball

14.3%(+1.8)

81.0lg 80.3

+0.5

5601

2722

-17.4"lg -10.3

8.5"lg 8.8

Sweeper

6.5%(−9.7)

83.5lg 82.5

+1.9

6431

2733

-3.4"lg 0.9

15.0"lg 13.7

4-Seam Fastball

3.6%(−0.3)

94.6lg 94.5

+2.1

5173

2266

—lg 15.4

—lg 7.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

94.6

92.5

+2.1

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2266

2215

+51

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.297

.361

−.064

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.08

3.62

−1.54

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.263

.295

−.032

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

32.7

38.8

−6.1

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.211

.236

−.025

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

8.4

6.9

+1.5

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

20.7

22.5

−1.8

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.8

7.8

−1.0

K% vs baseline

Contact

18.7

19.4

−0.7

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

5.3

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.7

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs ATL

W 5-1

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jul 19

@ AZ

L 2-10

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 17

@ DET

W 3-2

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 14

vs NYM

L 1-9

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 12

@ TB

W 7-4

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 9

@ COL

W 6-2

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 8

@ PHI

L 1-4

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs TOR

L 2-6

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 4

@ DET

W 9-4

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB

Jul 3

@ WSH

L 3-5

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB