Nolan McLean

SPQualified

New York Mets · NL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws R · 113.3 IP · 469 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 420 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+5.6 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (44% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.8°.

W-L

7-6

113.3

135

ERA

3.34

WHIP

1.09

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.39

xwOBA.286

xBA.213

xSLG.328

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.34

wOBA.281

BA.202

SLG.326

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.0551

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00543

BA against vs xBA−.01135

SLG against vs xSLG−.00244

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	33.7%(+5.8)	95.1lg 94.0	+0.3	6751	2197	5.2"lg 8.4	17.7"lg 15.0
4-Seam Fastball	20.1%(+6.8)	96.1lg 94.5	+0.3	7561	2331	14.0"lg 15.4	11.6"lg 7.8
Sweeper	15.9%(−9.8)	84.9lg 82.5	−0.4	7983	3010	-1.5"lg 0.9	18.6"lg 13.7
Curveball	13.4%(−2.5)	81.7lg 80.3	+1.7	6361	3341	-13.8"lg -10.3	17.3"lg 8.8
Cutter	9.9%(+1.4)	91.9lg 89.5	+1.0	8339	2557	6.3"lg 7.9	1.0"lg 2.4
Changeup	6.4%(−2.3)	88.2lg 86.6	+1.4	6768	1225	-2.8"lg 4.1	12.6"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +3.8°

Arm slot

28 pctl · +3.8° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	11.6	9.8	+1.8	92	83
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	14.0	13.7	+0.3	82	64
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	25.1	28.4	−3.3	19	63
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2331	2311	+20	80	60
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	35.0	38.8	−3.8	75	50
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	96.1	95.8	+0.3	75	50
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.4	7.8	−1.4	70	40
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	28.8	30.3	−1.5	34	33
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.202	.213	−.011	35	29
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	8.7	8.5	+0.2	41	17
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.281	.286	−.005	43	14
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.326	.328	−.002	44	12
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.34	3.39	−0.05	51	2
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ OAK	L 3-7	5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.5 mph
Jul 15	vs PIT	W 3-1	5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 10	vs AZ	L 3-7	4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 96.1 mph
Jul 4	@ CIN	L 3-5	4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.5 mph
Jun 30	vs CIN	W 4-2	7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 95.9 mph
Jun 26	vs HOU	L 3-10	6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.9 mph
Jun 22	@ CHC	L 2-8	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jun 16	@ KC	W 9-8	6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jun 10	@ SF	W 3-2	5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph
Jun 4	vs MIL	L 3-5	5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

33.7%(+5.8)

95.1lg 94.0

+0.3

6751

2197

5.2"lg 8.4

17.7"lg 15.0

4-Seam Fastball

20.1%(+6.8)

96.1lg 94.5

+0.3

7561

2331

14.0"lg 15.4

11.6"lg 7.8

Sweeper

15.9%(−9.8)

84.9lg 82.5

−0.4

7983

3010

-1.5"lg 0.9

18.6"lg 13.7

Curveball

13.4%(−2.5)

81.7lg 80.3

+1.7

6361

3341

-13.8"lg -10.3

17.3"lg 8.8

Cutter

9.9%(+1.4)

91.9lg 89.5

+1.0

8339

2557

6.3"lg 7.9

1.0"lg 2.4

Changeup

6.4%(−2.3)

88.2lg 86.6

+1.4

6768

1225

-2.8"lg 4.1

12.6"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

11.6

9.8

+1.8

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

14.0

13.7

+0.3

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

25.1

28.4

−3.3

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2331

2311

+20

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

35.0

38.8

−3.8

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

96.1

95.8

+0.3

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.4

7.8

−1.4

K% vs baseline

Contact

28.8

30.3

−1.5

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.202

.213

−.011

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

8.7

8.5

+0.2

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.281

.286

−.005

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.326

.328

−.002

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.34

3.39

−0.05

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ OAK

L 3-7

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jul 15

vs PIT

W 3-1

5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jul 10

vs AZ

L 3-7

4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jul 4

@ CIN

L 3-5

4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jun 30

vs CIN

W 4-2

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jun 26

vs HOU

L 3-10

6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 3 BB

Jun 22

@ CHC

L 2-8

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Jun 16

@ KC

W 9-8

6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jun 10

@ SF

W 3-2

5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB

Jun 4

vs MIL

L 3-5

5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB