Nick Pivetta
SPSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 16.0 IP · 66 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 272 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
11
−8.5 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (26% confidence).
W-L
1-2
SV
0
IP
16.0
K
24
BB
6
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.13
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA1.86
xwOBA.212
xBA.154
xSLG.228
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.50
wOBA.248
BA.200
SLG.267
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+2.6493
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03685
BA against vs xBA+.04690
SLG against vs xSLG+.03973
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 57.6%(+10.3) | 94.1lg 94.5 | +0.3 | 4074 | 2339 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 17.7%(−4.7) | 79.2lg 80.3 | +0.2 | 3513 | 2773 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
| Sweeper | 12.4%(−6.2) | 81.9lg 82.5 | ±0.0 | 4017 | 2442 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
| Cutter | 10.2%(+1.4) | 91.0lg 89.5 | +0.7 | 7202 | 2455 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
| Sinker | 1.4%(−0.9) | 93.4lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 3776 | 2234 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
No movement data for this arsenal (below the pitch-count minimum).
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
97 pctl · +1.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
99
xwOBA Against
99
K%
99
BB%
55
Whiff%
63
FB Velocity
43
Hard-Hit% Against
91
Spin Rate
64
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%