Nick Martinez
SPQualifiedTampa Bay Rays · AL · Age 35 · Bats L / Throws R · 111.3 IP · 452 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 27 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
35
−5.3 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — era vs xera: 2.6 actual vs 4.6 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.62
xwOBA.330
xBA.280
xSLG.439
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.59
wOBA.293
BA.248
SLG.389
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−2.036
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 30.7%(+13.8) | 92.5lg 94.0 | ±0.0 | 2658 | 2291 | 12.5"lg 8.4 | 15.3"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 27.5%(+7.7) | 78.4lg 86.6 | −0.1 | 134 | 1847 | 3.6"lg 4.1 | 12.4"lg 14.0 |
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
95 pctl · −2.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index