Nick Lodolo
SPQualifiedCincinnati Reds · NL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws L · 62.7 IP · 279 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 19 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
41
−8.2 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — whiff% vs baseline: 21.0 actual vs 27.5 deserved.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (43% confidence).
W-L
3-2
SV
0
IP
62.7
K
50
BB
27
ERA
4.60
WHIP
1.47
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA6.13
xwOBA.373
xBA.292
xSLG.466
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.60
wOBA.355
BA.277
SLG.447
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.5311
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01826
BA against vs xBA−.01529
SLG against vs xSLG−.01933
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 26.9%(−0.9) | 94.0lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 3867 | 2280 | 8.4"lg 15.4 | 16.9"lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 25.4%(+3.6) | 93.8lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 4536 | 2308 | 4.8"lg 8.4 | 18.8"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 23.9%(−4.8) | 82.2lg 80.3 | +0.3 | 6930 | 2623 | -0.5"lg -10.3 | 8.3"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 23.8%(+2.1) | 88.2lg 86.6 | +0.3 | 6768 | 1894 | 0.8"lg 4.1 | 17.4"lg 14.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
4 pctl · −0.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
12
xwOBA Against
12
K%
21
BB%
34
Whiff%
18
FB Velocity
41
Hard-Hit% Against
58
Spin Rate
46
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%