Nathan Eovaldi

SPQualified

Texas Rangers · AL · Age 36 · Bats R / Throws R · 115.3 IP · 483 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 99 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−2.1 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (45% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +4.6°.

W-L

9-8

115.3

122

ERA

4.21

WHIP

1.21

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.02

xwOBA.310

xBA.243

xSLG.413

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA4.21

wOBA.322

BA.249

SLG.440

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.1958

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01266

BA against vs xBA+.00658

SLG against vs xSLG+.02766

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Splitter	37.0%(+5.6)	88.5lg 86.7	+0.9	7248	1548	0.8"lg 3.1	12.8"lg 11.1
Curveball	22.1%(+2.4)	76.4lg 80.3	+0.6	1408	1895	-8.3"lg -10.3	8.4"lg 8.8
Cutter	19.6%(−0.5)	90.5lg 89.5	±0.0	6336	2245	10.3"lg 7.9	1.7"lg 2.4
4-Seam Fastball	13.1%(−9.4)	94.6lg 94.5	+0.5	5173	2186	13.4"lg 15.4	11.9"lg 7.8
Sinker	7.4%(+2.3)	93.5lg 94.0	+0.2	3977	2127	9.9"lg 8.4	16.1"lg 15.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +4.6°

Arm slot

46 pctl · +4.6° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	11.9	13.3	−1.4	9	81
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	30.9	27.7	+3.2	87	74
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	13.4	13.0	+0.4	85	70
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	94.6	94.1	+0.5	83	66
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2186	2229	−43	20	60
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	5.8	4.2	+1.6	24	52
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	8.6	7.8	+0.8	33	35
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.322	.310	+.012	66	33
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.440	.413	+.027	66	32
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	40.8	38.8	+2.0	34	32
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	25.3	26.0	−0.7	38	24
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	4.21	4.02	+0.19	58	17
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.249	.243	+.006	58	16
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ AZ	L 2-4	4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.4 mph
Jul 15	@ SF	L 4-9	5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jul 9	@ SD	W 6-4	4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.9 mph
Jul 4	vs STL	L 2-10	4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.7 mph
Jun 28	vs LAA	L 5-10	7.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 95.0 mph
Jun 22	@ TOR	L 4-10	6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.5 mph
Jun 16	vs CWS	W 8-4	5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 93.4 mph
Jun 11	vs PIT	W 4-0	4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.9 mph
Jun 5	vs CIN	L 3-10	6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 94.1 mph
May 31	@ LAA	W 6-3	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Splitter

37.0%(+5.6)

88.5lg 86.7

+0.9

7248

1548

0.8"lg 3.1

12.8"lg 11.1

Curveball

22.1%(+2.4)

76.4lg 80.3

+0.6

1408

1895

-8.3"lg -10.3

8.4"lg 8.8

Cutter

19.6%(−0.5)

90.5lg 89.5

±0.0

6336

2245

10.3"lg 7.9

1.7"lg 2.4

4-Seam Fastball

13.1%(−9.4)

94.6lg 94.5

+0.5

5173

2186

13.4"lg 15.4

11.9"lg 7.8

Sinker

7.4%(+2.3)

93.5lg 94.0

+0.2

3977

2127

9.9"lg 8.4

16.1"lg 15.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

11.9

13.3

−1.4

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

30.9

27.7

+3.2

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

13.4

13.0

+0.4

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

94.6

94.1

+0.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2186

2229

−43

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

5.8

4.2

+1.6

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

8.6

7.8

+0.8

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.322

.310

+.012

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.440

.413

+.027

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

40.8

38.8

+2.0

K% vs baseline

Contact

25.3

26.0

−0.7

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

4.21

4.02

+0.19

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.249

.243

+.006

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ AZ

L 2-4

4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jul 15

@ SF

L 4-9

5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jul 9

@ SD

W 6-4

4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jul 4

vs STL

L 2-10

4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 28

vs LAA

L 5-10

7.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jun 22

@ TOR

L 4-10

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 16

vs CWS

W 8-4

5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 11

vs PIT

W 4-0

4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 5

vs CIN

L 3-10

6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 3 BB

May 31

@ LAA

W 6-3

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB