Mitch Keller
SPQualifiedPittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 30 · Bats R / Throws R · 103.3 IP · 443 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 18 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
41
−4.0 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — ba against vs xba: .256 actual vs .289 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
6-7
SV
0
IP
103.3
K
77
BB
35
ERA
5.14
WHIP
1.33
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.38
xwOBA.353
xBA.289
xSLG.454
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.14
wOBA.327
BA.256
SLG.421
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.2444
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.02619
BA against vs xBA−.03314
SLG against vs xSLG−.03323
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 31.4%(−3.4) | 93.4lg 94.5 | −0.7 | 2984 | 2369 | 15.3"lg 15.4 | 8.7"lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 18.1%(+0.3) | 92.3lg 94.0 | −0.6 | 2384 | 2372 | 7.6"lg 8.4 | 14.3"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 16.8%(−2.3) | 82.1lg 82.5 | −0.2 | 4293 | 2700 | 0.9"lg 0.9 | 17.2"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 9.0%(+1.7) | 77.9lg 80.3 | +0.5 | 2437 | 2651 | -13.2"lg -10.3 | 13.2"lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 8.6%(−5.4) | 87.5lg 86.2 | +0.6 | 6948 | 2527 | 1.3"lg 1.5 | 4.5"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 8.6%(+1.6) | 88.8lg 86.6 | −0.4 | 7537 | 1530 | 2.4"lg 4.1 | 12.2"lg 14.0 |
| Cutter | 7.5%(+7.4) | 89.8lg 89.5 | −2.6 | 5144 | 2490 | 9.2"lg 7.9 | 2.4"lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
42 pctl · −2.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
21
xwOBA Against
21
K%
17
BB%
69
Whiff%
12
FB Velocity
32
Hard-Hit% Against
26
Spin Rate
72
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%