Mike Burrows
SPQualifiedHouston Astros · AL · Age 26 · Bats R / Throws R · 94.7 IP · 423 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 511 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
3
+2.9 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (49% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −8.1°.
W-L
4-9
SV
0
IP
94.7
K
75
BB
35
ERA
5.99
WHIP
1.55
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.81
xwOBA.336
xBA.263
xSLG.440
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.99
wOBA.374
BA.292
SLG.508
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.1882
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03885
BA against vs xBA+.02981
SLG against vs xSLG+.06884
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 28.5%(−10.7) | 95.0lg 94.5 | −0.5 | 5796 | 2277 | 16.5"lg 15.4 | 8.7"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 27.1%(+3.4) | 86.7lg 86.6 | −0.6 | 4915 | 1483 | 5.8"lg 4.1 | 15.0"lg 14.0 |
| Slider | 16.5%(−3.0) | 89.5lg 86.2 | +2.2 | 9240 | 2527 | 7.2"lg 1.5 | 3.7"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 14.4%(+2.5) | 79.0lg 80.3 | +0.5 | 3291 | 2910 | -13.3"lg -10.3 | 10.8"lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 13.5%(+7.8) | 94.5lg 94.0 | −1.2 | 5580 | 2166 | 12.8"lg 8.4 | 14.6"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −8.1°
Arm slot
55 pctl · −8.1° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
34
xwOBA Against
34
K%
19
BB%
65
Whiff%
22
FB Velocity
60
Hard-Hit% Against
55
Spin Rate
45
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%