Michael King
SPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 31 · Bats R / Throws R · 113.3 IP · 464 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 13 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
45
−3.7 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — slg against vs xslg: .328 actual vs .409 deserved.
Most likely driver: spin down more than velocity — grip/feel or ball-in-hand change (36% confidence).
W-L
6-7
SV
0
IP
113.3
K
96
BB
45
ERA
3.34
WHIP
1.16
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.62
xwOBA.330
xBA.248
xSLG.409
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.34
wOBA.287
BA.212
SLG.328
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.2815
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0438
BA against vs xBA−.03613
SLG against vs xSLG−.0818
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 29.0%(−0.5) | 92.9lg 94.0 | +0.2 | 3070 | 2240 | 4.7"lg 8.4 | 17.1"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 27.4%(+6.0) | 86.3lg 86.6 | −0.5 | 4439 | 1867 | 4.1"lg 4.1 | 17.0"lg 14.0 |
| Sweeper | 19.4%(+0.4) | 81.9lg 82.5 | −0.4 | 4017 | 2812 | 2.8"lg 0.9 | 13.2"lg 13.7 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 18.9%(−5.5) | 94.0lg 94.5 | +0.3 | 3867 | 2332 | 14.9"lg 15.4 | 7.8"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 5.3%(−0.4) | 84.8lg 86.2 | +1.0 | 2482 | 2497 | 1.1"lg 1.5 | 3.8"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
14 pctl · −2.2° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
39
xwOBA Against
39
K%
34
BB%
34
Whiff%
43
FB Velocity
41
Hard-Hit% Against
83
Spin Rate
61
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%