Michael Kelly
RPATH · AL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 5.0 IP · 32 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 272 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
10
+4.3 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (12% confidence).
W-L
0-0
SV
0
IP
5.0
K
6
BB
6
ERA
16.20
WHIP
3.60
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA9.08
xwOBA.436
xBA.349
xSLG.522
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA16.20
wOBA.556
BA.462
SLG.769
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+7.1299
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.12098
BA against vs xBA+.11398
SLG against vs xSLG+.24798
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 41.3%(−9.1) | 83.9lg 82.5 | +1.0 | 6828 | 2760 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
| Slider | 26.4%(+12.1) | 90.0lg 86.2 | −0.3 | 9430 | 2627 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 22.3%(−6.9) | 95.9lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 7232 | 2317 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 9.1%(+4.5) | 95.5lg 94.0 | +0.5 | 7384 | 2296 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
No movement data for this arsenal (below the pitch-count minimum).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
1
xwOBA Against
1
K%
50
BB%
45
Whiff%
51
FB Velocity
73
Hard-Hit% Against
51
Spin Rate
56
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%