Merrill Kelly
SPQualifiedArizona Diamondbacks · NL · Age 37 · Bats R / Throws R · 98.7 IP · 432 BF
↓ Negative regressionSTRONG SELLRank 1 of 614 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
58
−10.0 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — barrel% against vs league: 13.8 actual vs 7.8 deserved.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (42% confidence).
W-L
7-8
SV
0
IP
98.7
K
62
BB
40
ERA
5.20
WHIP
1.49
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA7.54
xwOBA.406
xBA.308
xSLG.577
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.20
wOBA.367
BA.279
SLG.510
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−2.345
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.03911
BA against vs xBA−.02918
SLG against vs xSLG−.06710
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 26.6%(+3.4) | 92.2lg 94.5 | +0.3 | 1542 | 2366 | 14.7"lg 15.4 | 9.6"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 25.7%(−1.4) | 88.6lg 86.6 | +0.3 | 7200 | 2160 | 0.2"lg 4.1 | 15.2"lg 14.0 |
| Cutter | 14.9%(−5.3) | 91.1lg 89.5 | +0.5 | 7391 | 2369 | 12.8"lg 7.8 | 4.2"lg 2.4 |
| Curveball | 11.7%(+2.0) | 82.6lg 80.3 | +0.9 | 7421 | 2569 | -8.5"lg -10.4 | 7.3"lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 11.3%(+4.3) | 86.5lg 86.2 | +0.7 | 5095 | 2305 | 4.0"lg 1.5 | 1.5"lg 4.1 |
| Sinker | 9.8%(−3.1) | 92.5lg 94.0 | +0.2 | 2659 | 2239 | 6.5"lg 8.4 | 16.8"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
12 pctl · −0.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
3
xwOBA Against
3
K%
7
BB%
54
Whiff%
19
FB Velocity
18
Hard-Hit% Against
15
Spin Rate
71
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%