Matt Waldron
RPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 29 · Bats R / Throws R · 28.7 IP · 130 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 42 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
30
+0.2 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — fastball velo vs baseline: 91.9 actual vs 90.2 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (28% confidence).
W-L
1-2
SV
0
IP
28.7
K
27
BB
8
ERA
7.53
WHIP
1.57
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.11
xwOBA.313
xBA.238
xSLG.412
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA7.53
wOBA.394
BA.314
SLG.559
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+3.4296
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.08196
BA against vs xBA+.07696
SLG against vs xSLG+.14796
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knuckleball | 28.4%(−45.6) | 80.6 | +1.2 | — | 304 | — | — |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 20.1%(+5.7) | 91.9lg 94.5 | +1.7 | 1194 | 2062 | 14.0"lg 15.4 | 7.9"lg 7.8 |
| CutterNEW | 19.7% | 88.0lg 89.5 | — | 2888 | 2139 | 8.3"lg 7.9 | 2.1"lg 2.4 |
| Sinker | 16.7%(+8.0) | 91.5lg 94.0 | +1.8 | 1540 | 2004 | 8.9"lg 8.4 | 15.2"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 15.0%(+12.1) | 81.1lg 82.5 | +0.1 | 2759 | 2232 | 4.7"lg 0.9 | 12.5"lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
no prior-season baseline
24 pctl ·
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
56
xwOBA Against
56
K%
35
BB%
87
Whiff%
9
FB Velocity
15
Hard-Hit% Against
56
Spin Rate
5
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%