Mason Montgomery

RPQualified

Pittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 26 · Bats L / Throws L · 39.0 IP · 165 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 429 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+5.4 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: era overstates the problem â€” results behind the process (36% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +5.6°.

W-L

2-3

39.0

ERA

3.92

WHIP

1.26

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.10

xwOBA.274

xBA.200

xSLG.317

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.92

wOBA.287

BA.212

SLG.342

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.8275

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01367

BA against vs xBA+.01266

SLG against vs xSLG+.02564

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	58.5%(−7.7)	98.2lg 94.5	−0.5	9533	2218	18.2"lg 15.4	4.2"lg 7.8
Slider	17.3%(−16.5)	89.4lg 86.2	−0.3	9145	2628	1.3"lg 1.5	1.7"lg 4.1
CurveballNEW	15.3%	86.6lg 80.3	—	9731	2675	-6.6"lg -10.3	1.4"lg 8.8
SinkerNEW	5.6%	98.2lg 94.0	—	9631	2140	14.6"lg 8.4	10.1"lg 15.0
ChangeupNEW	3.3%	89.8lg 86.6	—	8500	1663	—lg 4.1	—lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +5.6°

Arm slot

97 pctl · +5.6° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	4.2	6.1	−1.9	5	91
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2218	2313	−95	5	90
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	35.2	30.1	+5.1	89	78
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	31.5	35.8	−4.3	13	75
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	10.9	12.9	−2.0	87	73
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	98.2	98.7	−0.5	24	53
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.92	3.10	+0.82	75	51
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	18.2	18.5	−0.3	25	50
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.0	7.8	+1.2	29	43
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.287	.274	+.013	67	34
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.212	.200	+.012	66	32
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.342	.317	+.025	64	28
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	39.3	38.8	+0.5	44	12
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ MIA	L 2-4	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 97.9 mph
Jul 19	@ MIA	W 8-2	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 97.6 mph
Jul 18	vs BOS	W 6-1	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.7 mph
Jul 15	vs PHI	L 4-10	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.4 mph
Jul 13	@ PHI	W 7-6	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 96.9 mph
Jul 10	vs LAD	L 2-9	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.4 mph
Jul 7	vs MIN	W 7-4	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.1 mph
Jul 6	@ BAL	L 2-5	2.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.1 mph
Jul 5	@ OAK	W 7-1	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.6 mph
Jul 2	@ BOS	L 0-5	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.1 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

58.5%(−7.7)

98.2lg 94.5

−0.5

9533

2218

18.2"lg 15.4

4.2"lg 7.8

Slider

17.3%(−16.5)

89.4lg 86.2

−0.3

9145

2628

1.3"lg 1.5

1.7"lg 4.1

CurveballNEW

15.3%

86.6lg 80.3

—

9731

2675

-6.6"lg -10.3

1.4"lg 8.8

SinkerNEW

5.6%

98.2lg 94.0

—

9631

2140

14.6"lg 8.4

10.1"lg 15.0

ChangeupNEW

3.3%

89.8lg 86.6

—

8500

1663

—lg 4.1

—lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

4.2

6.1

−1.9

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2218

2313

−95

K% vs baseline

Contact

35.2

30.1

+5.1

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

31.5

35.8

−4.3

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

10.9

12.9

−2.0

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

98.2

98.7

−0.5

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.92

3.10

+0.82

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

18.2

18.5

−0.3

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.0

7.8

+1.2

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.287

.274

+.013

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.212

.200

+.012

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.342

.317

+.025

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

39.3

38.8

+0.5

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ MIA

L 2-4

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jul 19

@ MIA

W 8-2

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 18

vs BOS

W 6-1

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 15

vs PHI

L 4-10

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 13

@ PHI

W 7-6

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 10

vs LAD

L 2-9

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs MIN

W 7-4

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 6

@ BAL

L 2-5

2.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

Jul 5

@ OAK

W 7-1

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 2

@ BOS

L 0-5

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB