Mason Miller
RPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 40.7 IP · 155 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 54 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
27
+9.0 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — hard-hit% against vs league: 23.1 actual vs 38.8 deserved.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (27% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +5.5°.
W-L
2-1
SV
25
IP
40.7
K
75
BB
14
ERA
0.89
WHIP
0.84
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA1.35
xwOBA.178
xBA.125
xSLG.168
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA0.89
wOBA.182
BA.144
SLG.151
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.4634
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00454
BA against vs xBA+.01974
SLG against vs xSLG−.01735
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 53.7%(+8.1) | 87.8lg 86.2 | ±0.0 | 7292 | 2421 | -4.2"lg 1.5 | 10.2"lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 43.5%(−8.6) | 101.3lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 9991 | 2536 | 16.7"lg 15.4 | 5.9"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 2.6%(+0.3) | 96.4lg 86.6 | +3.5 | 9988 | 2168 | —lg 4.1 | —lg 14.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +5.5°
Arm slot
58 pctl · +5.5° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
100
xwOBA Against
100
K%
100
BB%
56
Whiff%
100
FB Velocity
100
Hard-Hit% Against
99
Spin Rate
94
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%