Mason Fluharty

RPQualified

Toronto Blue Jays · AL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws L · 39.0 IP · 171 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 131 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−2.5 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (26% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +4.0°.

W-L

4-1

39.0

ERA

4.38

WHIP

1.44

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.14

xwOBA.276

xBA.203

xSLG.344

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA4.38

wOBA.324

BA.265

SLG.397

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+1.2483

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.04889

BA against vs xBA+.06294

SLG against vs xSLG+.05379

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Cutter	49.0%(−9.2)	90.8lg 89.5	+0.6	7004	2652	10.9"lg 7.9	2.8"lg 2.4
Sweeper	41.2%(−0.5)	82.2lg 82.5	+0.5	4534	2679	0.7"lg 0.9	15.4"lg 13.7
ChangeupNEW	9.9%	87.2lg 86.6	—	5659	1846	2.3"lg 4.1	12.2"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +4.0°

Arm slot

44 pctl · +4.0° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2652	1949	+703	100	100
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.265	.203	+.062	94	87
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.324	.276	+.048	89	78
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	90.8	91.6	−0.8	15	70
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	9.4	11.2	−1.8	85	69
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	4.38	3.14	+1.24	83	66
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	33.6	38.8	−5.2	83	65
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	28.5	31.9	−3.4	18	65
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.397	.344	+.053	79	58
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	27.5	26.0	+1.5	75	50
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	8.4	7.8	+0.6	36	29
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	10.9	10.9	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	2.8	2.8	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ LAA	L 3-4	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jul 18	@ HOU	L 3-7	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 91.0 mph
Jul 17	vs TB	W 5-0	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jul 14	vs BOS	L 3-5	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jul 11	vs CIN	W 5-4	2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.5 mph
Jul 8	vs SD	W 8-2	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.8 mph
Jul 6	vs MIN	L 0-6	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 91.6 mph
Jul 3	@ BOS	W 7-3	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 89.7 mph
Jun 30	@ WSH	L 5-8	2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 90.4 mph
Jun 29	vs LAA	W 6-5	1.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 90.7 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Cutter

49.0%(−9.2)

90.8lg 89.5

+0.6

7004

2652

10.9"lg 7.9

2.8"lg 2.4

Sweeper

41.2%(−0.5)

82.2lg 82.5

+0.5

4534

2679

0.7"lg 0.9

15.4"lg 13.7

ChangeupNEW

9.9%

87.2lg 86.6

—

5659

1846

2.3"lg 4.1

12.2"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2652

1949

+703

100

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.265

.203

+.062

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.324

.276

+.048

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

90.8

91.6

−0.8

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

9.4

11.2

−1.8

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

4.38

3.14

+1.24

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

33.6

38.8

−5.2

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

28.5

31.9

−3.4

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.397

.344

+.053

K% vs baseline

Contact

27.5

26.0

+1.5

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

8.4

7.8

+0.6

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

10.9

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

2.8

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ LAA

L 3-4

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 18

@ HOU

L 3-7

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

vs TB

W 5-0

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB

Jul 14

vs BOS

L 3-5

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 11

vs CIN

W 5-4

2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB

Jul 8

vs SD

W 8-2

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 6

vs MIN

L 0-6

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 3

@ BOS

W 7-3

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jun 30

@ WSH

L 5-8

2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jun 29

vs LAA

W 6-5

1.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB