Lucas Giolito

San Diego Padres · NL · Age 32 · Bats R / Throws R · 29.7 IP · 138 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 44 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+1.5 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — fastball velo vs baseline: 90.8 actual vs 93.3 deserved.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (27% confidence).

W-L

2-3

29.7

ERA

5.16

WHIP

1.85

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA5.56

xwOBA.358

xBA.262

xSLG.406

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA5.16

wOBA.369

BA.281

SLG.412

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.4037

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01165

BA against vs xBA+.01974

SLG against vs xSLG+.00649

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	41.6%(−6.8)	90.8lg 94.5	−2.5	450	2144	17.8"lg 15.4	6.6"lg 7.8
Changeup	34.7%(+12.1)	79.0lg 86.6	−2.7	220	1541	13.8"lg 4.1	11.6"lg 14.0
Slider	17.1%(−8.5)	83.2lg 86.2	−2.8	1283	1828	5.3"lg 1.5	3.1"lg 4.1
Curveball	6.7%(+3.2)	76.9lg 80.3	−1.7	1709	2226	-13.1"lg -10.3	3.3"lg 8.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

95 pctl · +2.7° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	90.8	93.3	−2.5	1	98
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	16.7	9.1	+7.6	2	96
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2144	2231	−87	6	88
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	13.0	19.7	−6.7	9	82
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	4.2	7.8	−3.6	88	77
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	43.8	38.8	+5.0	19	61
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	17.8	18.1	−0.3	25	50
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.281	.262	+.019	74	49
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	24.0	22.9	+1.1	74	48
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	6.6	6.8	−0.2	26	47
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.369	.358	+.011	65	30
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	5.16	5.56	−0.40	37	25
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.412	.406	+.006	49	2
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ PHI	L 4-10	6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 90.4 mph
Jul 15	vs PHI	L 3-6	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.3 mph
Jul 10	vs TEX	W 3-0	6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.6 mph
Jul 4	@ TEX	W 3-1	5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 90.6 mph
Jun 30	@ BAL	W 8-1	4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 90.9 mph
Jun 24	vs CLE	W 9-2	5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.7 mph
Jun 19	vs MIL	L 3-5	5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 5 BB	Avg FB 90.3 mph
Jun 13	vs TEX	L 3-8	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 90.8 mph
Jun 9	@ CIN	L 0-10	4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.6 mph
Jun 3	@ NYM	W 8-6	6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 4 BB	Avg FB 91.4 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

41.6%(−6.8)

90.8lg 94.5

−2.5

450

2144

17.8"lg 15.4

6.6"lg 7.8

Changeup

34.7%(+12.1)

79.0lg 86.6

−2.7

220

1541

13.8"lg 4.1

11.6"lg 14.0

Slider

17.1%(−8.5)

83.2lg 86.2

−2.8

1283

1828

5.3"lg 1.5

3.1"lg 4.1

Curveball

6.7%(+3.2)

76.9lg 80.3

−1.7

1709

2226

-13.1"lg -10.3

3.3"lg 8.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

90.8

93.3

−2.5

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

16.7

9.1

+7.6

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2144

2231

−87

K% vs baseline

Contact

13.0

19.7

−6.7

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

4.2

7.8

−3.6

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

43.8

38.8

+5.0

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

17.8

18.1

−0.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.281

.262

+.019

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

24.0

22.9

+1.1

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

6.6

6.8

−0.2

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.369

.358

+.011

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

5.16

5.56

−0.40

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.412

.406

+.006

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ PHI

L 4-10

6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 4 BB

Jul 15

vs PHI

L 3-6

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB

Jul 10

vs TEX

W 3-0

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 3 BB

Jul 4

@ TEX

W 3-1

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 4 BB

Jun 30

@ BAL

W 8-1

4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jun 24

vs CLE

W 9-2

5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB

Jun 19

vs MIL

L 3-5

5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 5 BB

Jun 13

vs TEX

L 3-8

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 4 BB

Jun 9

@ CIN

L 0-10

4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jun 3

@ NYM

W 8-6

6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 4 BB