Louis Varland
RPQualifiedToronto Blue Jays · AL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws R · 50.0 IP · 193 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 26 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
36
+2.4 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — k% vs baseline: 35.2 actual vs 25.3 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
3-3
SV
20
IP
50.0
K
68
BB
13
ERA
1.08
WHIP
0.96
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.02
xwOBA.221
xBA.189
xSLG.250
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA1.08
wOBA.221
BA.196
SLG.240
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.9423
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00049
BA against vs xBA+.00759
SLG against vs xSLG−.01038
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 41.0%(−4.3) | 98.5lg 94.5 | +0.4 | 9628 | 2260 | 16.2"lg 15.4 | 7.9"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 30.6%(−6.9) | 87.4lg 80.3 | −0.6 | 9826 | 2525 | -8.2"lg -10.3 | 6.1"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 17.2%(+12.5) | 92.9lg 86.6 | +1.0 | 9829 | 1718 | 1.6"lg 4.1 | 12.5"lg 14.0 |
| Slider | 8.7%(+1.7) | 91.6lg 86.2 | ±0.0 | 9893 | 2471 | 4.9"lg 1.5 | 4.7"lg 4.1 |
| Sinker | 2.5%(−2.9) | 96.9lg 94.0 | ±0.0 | 9008 | 2124 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
53 pctl · −2.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
99
xwOBA Against
99
K%
98
BB%
82
Whiff%
84
FB Velocity
96
Hard-Hit% Against
71
Spin Rate
41
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%