Lance McCullers Jr.
SPMilwaukee Brewers · NL · Age 32 · Bats L / Throws R · 42.3 IP · 184 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 602 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
0
−4.6 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (40% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +6.6°.
W-L
2-3
SV
0
IP
42.3
K
47
BB
23
ERA
6.80
WHIP
1.49
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.46
xwOBA.325
xBA.239
xSLG.383
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA6.80
wOBA.360
BA.252
SLG.472
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+2.3492
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03584
BA against vs xBA+.01367
SLG against vs xSLG+.08990
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 27.3%(+22.8) | 89.1lg 89.5 | −0.2 | 4296 | 2334 | 8.4"lg 7.9 | 2.7"lg 2.4 |
| Sinker | 22.3%(−2.4) | 91.3lg 94.0 | −0.2 | 1276 | 2070 | 5.8"lg 8.4 | 15.4"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 16.4%(−15.6) | 82.3lg 82.5 | −0.5 | 4776 | 2693 | 6.4"lg 0.9 | 16.8"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 15.5%(−0.9) | 81.6lg 80.3 | −0.7 | 6187 | 2818 | -8.8"lg -10.3 | 13.6"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 14.5%(−2.5) | 85.5lg 86.6 | −1.2 | 3085 | 1709 | 1.1"lg 4.1 | 16.1"lg 14.0 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 4.0%(−1.4) | 91.6lg 94.5 | −0.2 | 891 | 2141 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +6.6°
Arm slot
29 pctl · +6.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
44
xwOBA Against
44
K%
76
BB%
15
Whiff%
77
FB Velocity
12
Hard-Hit% Against
3
Spin Rate
13
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%