Kyle Leahy
SPQualifiedSt. Louis Cardinals · NL · Age 29 · Bats S / Throws R · 89.3 IP · 388 BF
↓ Negative regressionSTRONG SELLRank 3 of 614 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
56
+2.1 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — spin rate vs baseline: 2178.0 actual vs 2375.0 deserved.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (26% confidence).
W-L
7-4
SV
0
IP
89.3
K
75
BB
33
ERA
3.73
WHIP
1.41
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.38
xwOBA.353
xBA.275
xSLG.466
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.73
wOBA.334
BA.269
SLG.416
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.6510
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01925
BA against vs xBA−.00640
SLG against vs xSLG−.05015
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 28.6%(−1.6) | 94.1lg 94.5 | −1.3 | 4099 | 2178 | 14.9"lg 15.4 | 4.6"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 16.1%(−4.9) | 89.2lg 86.2 | −1.9 | 8907 | 2324 | 3.7"lg 1.5 | 5.4"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 16.1%(−1.9) | 82.8lg 80.3 | −0.8 | 7674 | 2330 | -11.3"lg -10.4 | 8.8"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 13.4%(+3.8) | 88.4lg 86.6 | −1.9 | 7005 | 1471 | 2.0"lg 4.1 | 11.6"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 13.0%(+5.5) | 93.9lg 94.0 | −1.4 | 4661 | 2177 | 10.9"lg 8.4 | 13.1"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 12.8%(−1.0) | 84.8lg 82.5 | −1.9 | 7840 | 2636 | 2.0"lg 0.9 | 16.8"lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
73 pctl · −1.4° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
21
xwOBA Against
21
K%
28
BB%
63
Whiff%
23
FB Velocity
43
Hard-Hit% Against
4
Spin Rate
20
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%