Kyle Hart
RPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 33 · Bats L / Throws L · 35.0 IP · 145 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 164 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
17
+0.9 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (38% confidence).
W-L
0-2
SV
0
IP
35.0
K
30
BB
12
ERA
5.66
WHIP
1.14
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.75
xwOBA.300
xBA.223
xSLG.375
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.66
wOBA.308
BA.222
SLG.405
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.9189
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00860
BA against vs xBA−.00147
SLG against vs xSLG+.03068
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 28.4%(−4.9) | 82.9lg 82.5 | +1.6 | 5569 | 2744 | 1.1"lg 0.9 | 17.1"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 24.9%(+3.3) | 93.8lg 94.0 | +2.4 | 4536 | 2162 | 7.9"lg 8.4 | 16.4"lg 15.0 |
| Splitter | 19.9%(+15.1) | 85.4lg 86.7 | +0.3 | 3716 | 1123 | -1.6"lg 3.1 | 7.4"lg 11.1 |
| Slider | 16.8%(+6.2) | 88.9lg 86.2 | +1.6 | 8622 | 2420 | 6.0"lg 1.5 | 3.3"lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 10.0%(−6.1) | 94.0lg 94.5 | +2.5 | 3867 | 2272 | 14.8"lg 15.4 | 8.2"lg 7.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
47 pctl · +2.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
67
xwOBA Against
67
K%
34
BB%
65
Whiff%
8
FB Velocity
41
Hard-Hit% Against
93
Spin Rate
44
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%