Kyle Harrison

SPQualified

Milwaukee Brewers · NL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws L · 83.7 IP · 341 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 14 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+0.8 last 7 days

BUYThe process is ahead of the results — induced vertical break vs baseline: 14.8 actual vs 12.4 deserved.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (50% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +5.0°.

W-L

8-2

83.7

101

ERA

3.01

WHIP

1.08

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.17

xwOBA.277

xBA.223

xSLG.348

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA3.01

wOBA.283

BA.221

SLG.366

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.1647

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00657

BA against vs xBA−.00245

SLG against vs xSLG+.01860

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	58.0%(−0.9)	95.0lg 94.5	+0.4	5796	2364	14.8"lg 15.4	12.8"lg 7.8
Slurve	30.7%(+3.3)	82.2lg 81.7	±0.0	—	2180	—	—
Changeup	9.6%(+1.6)	86.3lg 86.6	±0.0	4439	1274	-3.9"lg 4.1	10.8"lg 14.0
Sinker	1.7%(−0.3)	94.7lg 94.0	+1.7	5949	2297	—lg 8.4	—lg 15.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +5.0°

Arm slot

30 pctl · +5.0° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	14.8	12.4	+2.4	99	98
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2364	2294	+70	94	89
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	5.9	9.0	−3.1	92	84
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	12.8	14.3	−1.5	9	83
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	29.6	24.4	+5.2	90	79
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	29.0	25.9	+3.1	87	73
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	95.0	94.6	+0.4	80	61
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.5	7.8	−1.3	69	37
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	36.6	38.8	−2.2	66	32
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.366	.348	+.018	60	19
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.283	.277	+.006	57	15
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.221	.223	−.002	45	10
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	3.01	3.17	−0.16	47	7
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs BAL	W 8-4	6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.5 mph
Jul 16	vs NYM	L 4-5	5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph
Jul 12	@ WSH	L 4-10	5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph
Jul 6	@ ATL	W 6-3	5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jul 1	@ CIN	L 2-9	7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jun 27	@ CLE	W 9-6	4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jun 21	vs OAK	W 4-2	4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.4 mph
Jun 15	@ CHC	W 5-3	6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.8 mph
Jun 9	@ OAK	W 9-0	6.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jun 3	@ NYM	W 8-4	4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 94.7 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

58.0%(−0.9)

95.0lg 94.5

+0.4

5796

2364

14.8"lg 15.4

12.8"lg 7.8

Slurve

30.7%(+3.3)

82.2lg 81.7

±0.0

—

2180

—

Changeup

9.6%(+1.6)

86.3lg 86.6

±0.0

4439

1274

-3.9"lg 4.1

10.8"lg 14.0

Sinker

1.7%(−0.3)

94.7lg 94.0

+1.7

5949

2297

—lg 8.4

—lg 15.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

14.8

12.4

+2.4

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2364

2294

+70

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

5.9

9.0

−3.1

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

12.8

14.3

−1.5

K% vs baseline

Contact

29.6

24.4

+5.2

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

29.0

25.9

+3.1

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

95.0

94.6

+0.4

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.5

7.8

−1.3

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

36.6

38.8

−2.2

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.366

.348

+.018

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.283

.277

+.006

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.221

.223

−.002

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

3.01

3.17

−0.16

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs BAL

W 8-4

6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jul 16

vs NYM

L 4-5

5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Jul 12

@ WSH

L 4-10

5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K, 2 BB

Jul 6

@ ATL

W 6-3

5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB

Jul 1

@ CIN

L 2-9

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB

Jun 27

@ CLE

W 9-6

4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 21

vs OAK

W 4-2

4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 0 BB

Jun 15

@ CHC

W 5-3

6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB

Jun 9

@ OAK

W 9-0

6.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

Jun 3

@ NYM

W 8-4

4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB