Kyle Freeland
SPQualifiedColorado Rockies · NL · Age 33 · Bats L / Throws L · 94.0 IP · 429 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 47 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
29
+7.3 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — era vs xera: 7.3 actual vs 5.6 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (62% confidence).
W-L
2-9
SV
0
IP
94.0
K
83
BB
20
ERA
7.28
WHIP
1.56
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.56
xwOBA.358
xBA.293
xSLG.497
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA7.28
wOBA.389
BA.317
SLG.559
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.7287
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03181
BA against vs xBA+.02479
SLG against vs xSLG+.06282
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 25.9%(−7.5) | 91.5lg 94.5 | −0.1 | 787 | 2384 | 14.1"lg 15.4 | 7.0"lg 7.8 |
| Cutter | 21.9%(+6.3) | 87.6lg 89.5 | +0.3 | 2419 | 2379 | 8.6"lg 7.9 | 1.4"lg 2.4 |
| Curveball | 20.9%(−5.2) | 82.4lg 80.3 | −0.2 | 7168 | 2369 | -5.3"lg -10.3 | 0.2"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 14.5%(+8.6) | 86.4lg 86.6 | ±0.0 | 4573 | 1643 | 5.3"lg 4.1 | 12.4"lg 14.0 |
| Sweeper | 11.3%(−1.6) | 82.7lg 82.5 | −0.9 | 5293 | 2327 | -3.7"lg 0.9 | 8.7"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 5.6%(−0.5) | 91.7lg 94.0 | +0.4 | 1719 | 2330 | 7.2"lg 8.4 | 14.2"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
23 pctl · +1.1° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
18
xwOBA Against
18
K%
28
BB%
96
Whiff%
28
FB Velocity
11
Hard-Hit% Against
20
Spin Rate
74
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%